About GOSSIPBALL

GOSSIPBALL publishes free, data-driven football predictions for 11 European leagues and the Champions League. Every probability on the site comes from statistical analysis of real match data, not from opinion, and the whole site is rebuilt automatically twice a day.

How the predictions are made

Each team gets an attack rating and a defence rating, estimated from five seasons of results, with recent matches counting more: a match from a year ago counts about half as much as last weekend's. For the current season the ratings use a mix of 60% expected goals (xG) and 40% actual goals, because xG is a steadier measure of how well a team plays. Home advantage is estimated separately for each league.

From the ratings, GOSSIPBALL works out how many goals each team should score in a match and turns that into the chance of every possible scoreline, using a well-established statistical method for football known as Dixon–Coles. Everything else on a match page, from win, draw and loss chances to goal totals and both teams scoring, is added up from those scoreline chances. Season chances come from playing out the rest of each season 10,000 times.

How it is tested

The track record is measured fairly: each week of a season is predicted using only the results from before it. Last season GOSSIPBALL's favourite won 50% of 3,761 matches. It clearly beats guessing, but football is unpredictable and no forecast gets close to certainty. See the track record for the details.

Data sources

Results, match statistics, expected goals and referees come from football-data.co.uk. Season schedules come from football-data.org and openfootball. All sources are free and public.

What the numbers can't see

Injuries, suspensions, team news, rotation, transfers, managerial changes, weather and motivation. Treat the probabilities as an informed second opinion.

A statistics site, not a betting site

GOSSIPBALL exists to explain football through numbers. It does not offer, promote, advertise or link to gambling of any kind, shows no bookmaker odds, takes no money from betting companies and carries no advertising. Nothing on the site is a tip or a recommendation. The legal notice sets this out in full.

Contact

Questions, corrections or concerns: [email protected].

Updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC.