Prediction track record
Every number here comes from predicting matches with only the results available before them, updating the ratings each week, as if the site had been running live.
Across 3,761 matches in the 2025–26 season, GOSSIPBALL's favourite result came in 50% of the time, against 43% for always picking the home team. When GOSSIPBALL gave one result 60% or more, it was right 71% of the time (851 matches).
By log loss, which scores the probabilities themselves, GOSSIPBALL scores 1.003, compared with 1.076 for guessing (lower is better). In short, it clearly beats guessing, but football stays unpredictable: even the best forecasts call only about half of all results correctly. This season so far its favourite has won 51% of 944 matches.
Calibration
What is calibration?When GOSSIPBALL says 40%, the outcome should happen about 40% of the time. Dots on the dashed line are perfectly honest.
| Predicted | Happened | Outcomes |
|---|---|---|
| 7% | 6% | 385 |
| 16% | 16% | 1,730 |
| 25% | 27% | 5,598 |
| 34% | 33% | 2,517 |
| 45% | 42% | 1,717 |
| 55% | 53% | 1,108 |
| 64% | 66% | 624 |
| 75% | 76% | 305 |
| 83% | 83% | 115 |
By league
| League | Fav. won | Log loss | This season | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 48% | 1.029 | 52% | 380 |
| La Liga | 53% | 0.979 | 49% | 380 |
| Serie A | 51% | 0.996 | 61% | 380 |
| Bundesliga | 55% | 0.976 | 52% | 306 |
| Ligue 1 | 52% | 0.999 | 56% | 306 |
| Primeira Liga | 55% | 0.922 | 53% | 306 |
| Eredivisie | 52% | 0.984 | 52% | 306 |
| Championship | 43% | 1.071 | 39% | 552 |
| Belgian Pro League | 44% | 1.036 | 59% | 311 |
| Süper Lig | 51% | 0.995 | 51% | 306 |
| Scottish Premiership | 54% | 0.988 | 44% | 228 |