BundesligaMatchday 9Saturday 7 November 2026 · 14:30

Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg prediction

Borussia Dortmund

74%

home win

likeliest score

2–1

8.6% chance

15%

draw

Elversberg

11%

away win

Win probability: home 74%, draw 15%, away 11%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Borussia Dortmund clear favourites to beat Elversberg at home in the Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC. It gives Borussia Dortmund a 74% chance of winning, puts the draw at 15% and gives Elversberg 11%.

GossipBall expects 2.8 goals from Borussia Dortmund and 1.1 from Elversberg, so goals look likely: there is a 75% chance of three or more goals and a 62% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 2–1 (9%). Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 34% of outcomes, Elversberg in 6%.

Borussia Dortmund are 2nd in the table with 17 points from 7 games; Elversberg are 8th with 10. In their last five league games Borussia Dortmund took 11 points (WWDDW) and Elversberg took 4 (LDLWL). This season Borussia Dortmund average 1.65 expected goals (xG) for and 0.96 against per game; Elversberg average 1.48 for and 2.29 against.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Borussia Dortmund goalsColumns: Elversberg goals

2–18.6%

3–18.2%

2–08.1%

3–07.7%

1–16.5%

4–15.8%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

98%

2 or more goals

91%

3 or more goals

75%

4 or more goals

55%

5 or more goals

35%

Both teams score

62%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.9 goals in total: 2.85 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.07 for Elversberg.

Winning margin

Explained

Borussia Dortmund by 3

16%

Borussia Dortmund by 2

20%

Borussia Dortmund by 1

20%

Draw

15%

Elversberg by 3

Elversberg by 2

Elversberg by 1

Each team's goals

Explained

Borussia Dortmund expected goals2.85

Elversberg expected goals1.07

Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet34%

Elversberg keep a clean sheet6%

Borussia Dortmund win without conceding32%

Elversberg win without conceding3%

Borussia Dortmund score 2 or more78%

Elversberg score 2 or more29%

Recent form

Borussia Dortmund

W v Eintracht Frankfurt1–0 · 24 Oct

D @ Union Berlin0–0 · 17 Oct

D v Werder Bremen2–2 · 9 Oct

W @ Stuttgart1–0 · 19 Sep

W v Paderborn3–0 · 12 Sep

Elversberg

L @ RB Leipzig0–4 · 24 Oct

W v Augsburg4–3 · 17 Oct

L @ Union Berlin0–1 · 10 Oct

D @ Schalke 040–0 · 20 Sep

L v Bayern Munich1–2 · 13 Sep

Head to head

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

BDEL

1.71

Goals

1.71

0.57

Conceded

2.14

1.65

1.48

0.96

xG against

2.29

15.3

Shots

10.3

5.1

On target

4.1

6.0

Corners

4.0

2.14

Yellow cards

2.00

71%

Clean sheets

14%

29%

Both score

57%

43%

3+ goals

71%

Questions and answers

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?

GossipBall gives Borussia Dortmund a 74% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Elversberg 11%. GossipBall makes Borussia Dortmund clear favourites to beat Elversberg at home.

What is the most likely score in Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?

The likeliest single score is 2–1, with a 9% chance. The next most likely are 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%), 3–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?

GossipBall gives a 62% chance that both Borussia Dortmund and Elversberg score.

Will there be three or more goals in Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?

There is a 75% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.9 goals in total (2.8 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.1 for Elversberg).

When is Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.