BundesligaMatchday 9Sunday 8 November 2026 · 14:30

FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction

FC Köln

22%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

10.2% chance

23%

draw

Bayer Leverkusen

56%

away win

Win probability: home 22%, draw 23%, away 56%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Bayer Leverkusen favourites to beat FC Köln away from home in the Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC. It gives FC Köln a 22% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Bayer Leverkusen 56%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from FC Köln and 2.0 from Bayer Leverkusen, so goals look likely: there is a 63% chance of three or more goals and a 62% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (10%). FC Köln keep a clean sheet in 13% of outcomes, Bayer Leverkusen in 30%.

FC Köln are 12th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; Bayer Leverkusen are 4th with 13. In their last five league games FC Köln took 5 points (DLWLD) and Bayer Leverkusen took 10 (DWWWL). This season FC Köln average 1.60 expected goals (xG) for and 1.64 against per game; Bayer Leverkusen average 1.97 for and 1.61 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, FC Köln won 2, Bayer Leverkusen won 5 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished FC Köln 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen, a win for Bayer Leverkusen.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: FC Köln goalsColumns: Bayer Leverkusen goals

1–110.2%

1–29.8%

0–28.0%

0–17.1%

1–36.7%

2–25.9%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

84%

3 or more goals

63%

4 or more goals

41%

5 or more goals

23%

Both teams score

62%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.3 goals in total: 1.22 for FC Köln and 2.05 for Bayer Leverkusen.

Winning margin

Explained

FC Köln by 3

FC Köln by 2

FC Köln by 1

13%

Draw

23%

Bayer Leverkusen by 3

10%

Bayer Leverkusen by 2

17%

Bayer Leverkusen by 1

22%

Each team's goals

Explained

FC Köln expected goals1.22

Bayer Leverkusen expected goals2.05

FC Köln keep a clean sheet13%

Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet30%

FC Köln win without conceding8%

Bayer Leverkusen win without conceding25%

FC Köln score 2 or more34%

Bayer Leverkusen score 2 or more61%

Recent form

FC Köln

D v Schalke 040–0 · 24 Oct

L @ Eintracht Frankfurt0–1 · 16 Oct

W v Gladbach2–1 · 11 Oct

L @ Hamburg1–2 · 19 Sep

D v Werder Bremen1–1 · 12 Sep

Bayer Leverkusen

L @ Hoffenheim0–3 · 25 Oct

W v Freiburg2–1 · 18 Oct

W @ Mainz4–3 · 10 Oct

W v RB Leipzig2–0 · 20 Sep

D @ Augsburg2–2 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, FC Köln won 2, Bayer Leverkusen won 5 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished FC Köln 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen, a win for Bayer Leverkusen.

FC Köln 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen25 Apr 2026

Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 FC Köln13 Dec 2025

FC Köln 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen3 Mar 2024

Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 FC Köln8 Oct 2023

Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 FC Köln5 May 2023

FC Köln 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen9 Nov 2022

Season averages per game

KÖBL

1.14

Goals

2.29

1.57

Conceded

1.71

1.60

1.97

1.64

xG against

1.61

15.9

Shots

18.1

5.3

On target

5.4

6.0

Corners

6.7

1.86

Yellow cards

1.71

14%

Clean sheets

29%

71%

Both score

57%

3+ goals

86%

Questions and answers

Who will win FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

GossipBall gives FC Köln a 22% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen 56%. GossipBall makes Bayer Leverkusen favourites to beat FC Köln away from home.

What is the most likely score in FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 10% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (8%), 0–1 (7%).

Will both teams score in FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

GossipBall gives a 62% chance that both FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen score.

Will there be three or more goals in FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

There is a 63% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.3 goals in total (1.2 for FC Köln, 2.0 for Bayer Leverkusen).

When is FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, FC Köln won 2, Bayer Leverkusen won 5 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished FC Köln 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen, a win for Bayer Leverkusen.