Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen result and stats
Win probability: home 29%, draw 23%, away 49%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersHoffenheim beat Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 at home in the Bundesliga on Sunday 25 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Hoffenheim 29%, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen 49%, so a home win had a 29% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Hoffenheim 3.46, Bayer Leverkusen 0.57, so Hoffenheim created the better chances. Hoffenheim had 20 shots (6 on target) to Bayer Leverkusen's 9 (1 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
HOBL
3.46Expected goals0.57
20Shots9
6On target1
5Corners3
14Fouls6
4Yellow cards4
1Red cards0
0Half-time goals0
Recent form
Hoffenheim
W @ Gladbach2–1 · 18 Oct
L v Hamburg2–3 · 10 Oct
L @ Paderborn1–3 · 20 Sep
W v Stuttgart2–1 · 12 Sep
L v Borussia Dortmund2–3 · 5 Sep
Bayer Leverkusen
W v Freiburg2–1 · 18 Oct
W @ Mainz4–3 · 10 Oct
W v RB Leipzig2–0 · 20 Sep
D @ Augsburg2–2 · 12 Sep
W v Union Berlin4–0 · 5 Sep
Head to head
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Hoffenheim won 3, Bayer Leverkusen won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, finished Hoffenheim 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen, a win for Hoffenheim.
Hoffenheim 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen17 Jan 2026
Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 Hoffenheim23 Aug 2025
Bayer Leverkusen 3–1 Hoffenheim2 Feb 2025
Hoffenheim 1–4 Bayer Leverkusen14 Sep 2024
Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 Hoffenheim30 Mar 2024
Hoffenheim 2–3 Bayer Leverkusen4 Nov 2023
Season averages per game
HOBL
2.00Goals2.29
2.00Conceded1.71
2.01xG1.97
1.31xG against1.61
18.1Shots18.1
5.4On target5.4
6.4Corners6.7
2.14Yellow cards1.71
14%Clean sheets29%
86%Both score57%
100%3+ goals86%