BundesligaMatchday 8Sunday 1 November 2026 · 14:30

Union Berlin vs FC Köln prediction

Union Berlin

41%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.2% chance

28%

draw

FC Köln

31%

away win

Win probability: home 41%, draw 28%, away 31%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Union Berlin slight favourites to beat FC Köln at home in the Bundesliga on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC. It gives Union Berlin a 41% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives FC Köln 31%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Union Berlin and 1.2 from FC Köln, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 50% chance of three or more goals and a 55% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 30% of outcomes, FC Köln in 23%.

Union Berlin are 17th in the table with 6 points from 7 games; FC Köln are 12th with 8. In their last five league games Union Berlin took 5 points (LLWDD) and FC Köln took 5 (DLWLD). This season Union Berlin average 1.10 expected goals (xG) for and 2.01 against per game; FC Köln average 1.60 for and 1.64 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Union Berlin won 4, FC Köln won 1 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Union Berlin goalsColumns: FC Köln goals

1–113.2%

1–09.2%

2–18.9%

0–07.8%

0–17.6%

1–27.5%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

75%

3 or more goals

50%

4 or more goals

28%

5 or more goals

13%

Both teams score

55%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.7 goals in total: 1.45 for Union Berlin and 1.22 for FC Köln.

Winning margin

Explained

Union Berlin by 3

Union Berlin by 2

13%

Union Berlin by 1

21%

Draw

28%

FC Köln by 3

FC Köln by 2

FC Köln by 1

18%

Each team's goals

Explained

Union Berlin expected goals1.45

FC Köln expected goals1.22

Union Berlin keep a clean sheet30%

FC Köln keep a clean sheet23%

Union Berlin win without conceding22%

FC Köln win without conceding16%

Union Berlin score 2 or more42%

FC Köln score 2 or more34%

Recent form

Union Berlin

D @ Augsburg1–1 · 24 Oct

D v Borussia Dortmund0–0 · 17 Oct

W v Elversberg1–0 · 10 Oct

L @ Bayern Munich0–7 · 18 Sep

L v Schalke 041–3 · 11 Sep

FC Köln

D v Schalke 040–0 · 24 Oct

L @ Eintracht Frankfurt0–1 · 16 Oct

W v Gladbach2–1 · 11 Oct

L @ Hamburg1–2 · 19 Sep

D v Werder Bremen1–1 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Union Berlin won 4, FC Köln won 1 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

Union Berlin 2–2 FC Köln2 May 2026

FC Köln 0–1 Union Berlin20 Dec 2025

FC Köln 3–2 Union Berlin11 May 2024

Union Berlin 2–0 FC Köln20 Dec 2023

Union Berlin 0–0 FC Köln4 Mar 2023

FC Köln 0–1 Union Berlin11 Sep 2022

Season averages per game

UBKÖ

0.86

Goals

1.14

2.57

Conceded

1.57

1.10

1.60

2.01

xG against

1.64

11.9

Shots

15.9

3.9

On target

5.3

3.6

Corners

6.0

2.57

Yellow cards

1.86

29%

Clean sheets

14%

43%

Both score

71%

57%

3+ goals

57%

Questions and answers

Who will win Union Berlin vs FC Köln?

GossipBall gives Union Berlin a 41% chance of winning, the draw 28% and FC Köln 31%. GossipBall makes Union Berlin slight favourites to beat FC Köln at home.

What is the most likely score in Union Berlin vs FC Köln?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Köln?

GossipBall gives a 55% chance that both Union Berlin and FC Köln score.

Will there be three or more goals in Union Berlin vs FC Köln?

There is a 50% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (1.4 for Union Berlin, 1.2 for FC Köln).

When is Union Berlin vs FC Köln?

Kick-off is Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Köln?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Union Berlin won 4, FC Köln won 1 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, was a 2–2 draw.