Champions LeagueMatchday 4Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 20:00

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction

Atlético Madrid

46%

home win

likeliest score

2–1

8.2% chance

22%

draw

Bayern Munich

32%

away win

Win probability: home 46%, draw 22%, away 32%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Atlético Madrid favourites to beat Bayern Munich at home in the Champions League on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Atlético Madrid a 46% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Bayern Munich 32%.

GossipBall expects 2.1 goals from Atlético Madrid and 1.8 from Bayern Munich, so goals look likely: there is a 74% chance of three or more goals and a 73% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 2–1 (8%). Atlético Madrid keep a clean sheet in 17% of outcomes, Bayern Munich in 12%.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Atlético Madrid goalsColumns: Bayern Munich goals

2–18.2%

1–18.1%

2–27.2%

1–26.8%

3–15.7%

3–25.1%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

98%

2 or more goals

90%

3 or more goals

74%

4 or more goals

54%

5 or more goals

35%

Both teams score

73%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.9 goals in total: 2.11 for Atlético Madrid and 1.76 for Bayern Munich.

Winning margin

Explained

Atlético Madrid by 3

Atlético Madrid by 2

14%

Atlético Madrid by 1

19%

Draw

22%

Bayern Munich by 3

Bayern Munich by 2

10%

Bayern Munich by 1

16%

Each team's goals

Explained

Atlético Madrid expected goals2.11

Bayern Munich expected goals1.76

Atlético Madrid keep a clean sheet17%

Bayern Munich keep a clean sheet12%

Atlético Madrid win without conceding15%

Bayern Munich win without conceding10%

Atlético Madrid score 2 or more62%

Bayern Munich score 2 or more53%

Questions and answers

Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

GossipBall gives Atlético Madrid a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bayern Munich 32%. GossipBall makes Atlético Madrid favourites to beat Bayern Munich at home.

What is the most likely score in Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

The likeliest single score is 2–1, with a 8% chance. The next most likely are 1–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–2 (7%).

Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

GossipBall gives a 73% chance that both Atlético Madrid and Bayern Munich score.

Will there be three or more goals in Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

There is a 74% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.9 goals in total (2.1 for Atlético Madrid, 1.8 for Bayern Munich).

When is Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

Kick-off is Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.