GOSSIPBALL
Champions LeagueMatchday 4Wednesday 4 November 2026 ·

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction

RB Leipzig
24%
home win
likeliest score
1–1
9.6% chance
22%
draw
Manchester City
53%
away win
Win probability: home 24%, draw 22%, away 53%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Manchester City favourites to beat RB Leipzig away from home in the Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives RB Leipzig a 24% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Manchester City 53%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from RB Leipzig and 2.1 from Manchester City, so goals look likely: there is a 66% chance of three or more goals and a 65% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (10%). RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 13% of outcomes, Manchester City in 26%.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
6
7
5
2
1
1
4
10
9
6
3
1
2
3
6
6
4
2
<1
3
1
3
3
2
1
<1
4
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: RB Leipzig goalsColumns: Manchester City goals
1–19.6%
1–29.4%
0–27.0%
1–36.5%
2–26.4%
0–16.3%
1 or more goals
96%
2 or more goals
86%
3 or more goals
66%
4 or more goals
45%
5 or more goals
26%
Both teams score
65%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.4 goals in total: 1.35 for RB Leipzig and 2.06 for Manchester City.

Winning margin

Explained
RB Leipzig by 3
3%
RB Leipzig by 2
7%
RB Leipzig by 1
14%
Draw
22%
Manchester City by 3
9%
Manchester City by 2
16%
Manchester City by 1
21%

Each team's goals

Explained
RB Leipzig expected goals1.35
Manchester City expected goals2.06
RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet13%
Manchester City keep a clean sheet26%
RB Leipzig win without conceding9%
Manchester City win without conceding22%
RB Leipzig score 2 or more39%
Manchester City score 2 or more61%

Questions and answers

Who will win RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?

GossipBall gives RB Leipzig a 24% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Manchester City 53%. GossipBall makes Manchester City favourites to beat RB Leipzig away from home.

What is the most likely score in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 10% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (7%), 1–3 (6%).

Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?

GossipBall gives a 65% chance that both RB Leipzig and Manchester City score.

Will there be three or more goals in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?

There is a 66% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.4 goals in total (1.4 for RB Leipzig, 2.1 for Manchester City).

When is RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?

Kick-off is Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

GOSSIPBALL is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash.

Updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Track record · [email protected]