EredivisieMatchday 11Sunday 1 November 2026 · 13:30

Excelsior vs Twente prediction

Excelsior

22%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.5% chance

26%

draw

Twente

51%

away win

Win probability: home 22%, draw 26%, away 51%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Twente favourites to beat Excelsior away from home in the Eredivisie on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC. It gives Excelsior a 22% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Twente 51%.

GossipBall expects 1.1 goals from Excelsior and 1.7 from Twente, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 54% chance of three or more goals and a 56% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 17% of outcomes, Twente in 33%.

Excelsior are 13th in the table with 11 points from 10 games; Twente are 4th with 20. In their last five league games Excelsior took 1 points (LDLLL) and Twente took 10 (WWDLW). This season Excelsior average 1.27 expected goals (xG) for and 1.55 against per game; Twente average 2.03 for and 0.89 against.

In 6 league meetings since 2022, Excelsior won 1, Twente won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Excelsior goalsColumns: Twente goals

1–112.5%

1–29.8%

0–28.9%

0–18.8%

0–07.2%

2–16.1%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

93%

2 or more goals

79%

3 or more goals

54%

4 or more goals

32%

5 or more goals

16%

Both teams score

56%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.10 for Excelsior and 1.75 for Twente.

Winning margin

Explained

Excelsior by 3

Excelsior by 2

Excelsior by 1

13%

Draw

26%

Twente by 3

Twente by 2

16%

Twente by 1

22%

Each team's goals

Explained

Excelsior expected goals1.10

Twente expected goals1.75

Excelsior keep a clean sheet17%

Twente keep a clean sheet33%

Excelsior win without conceding10%

Twente win without conceding26%

Excelsior score 2 or more30%

Twente score 2 or more52%

Recent form

Excelsior

L @ Fortuna Sittard0–1 · 25 Oct

L @ Heerenveen0–4 · 16 Oct

L v Groningen1–5 · 11 Oct

D @ Ajax2–2 · 19 Sep

L v Utrecht1–2 · 13 Sep

Twente

W @ AZ Alkmaar2–0 · 25 Oct

L v Utrecht1–2 · 18 Oct

D @ Fortuna Sittard1–1 · 10 Oct

W v PSV Eindhoven3–2 · 20 Sep

W v Den Haag2–0 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 6 league meetings since 2022, Excelsior won 1, Twente won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

Twente 0–0 Excelsior24 Jan 2026

Excelsior 1–0 Twente30 Aug 2025

Excelsior 0–3 Twente10 Feb 2024

Twente 4–2 Excelsior8 Dec 2023

Excelsior 0–0 Twente1 Apr 2023

Twente 4–0 Excelsior31 Aug 2022

Season averages per game

EXTW

1.60

Goals

1.90

Conceded

1.00

1.27

2.03

1.55

xG against

0.89

10.6

Shots

20.3

3.8

On target

6.9

3.8

Corners

7.0

1.30

Yellow cards

1.00

20%

Clean sheets

30%

60%

Both score

60%

90%

3+ goals

50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Excelsior vs Twente?

GossipBall gives Excelsior a 22% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Twente 51%. GossipBall makes Twente favourites to beat Excelsior away from home.

What is the most likely score in Excelsior vs Twente?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Twente?

GossipBall gives a 56% chance that both Excelsior and Twente score.

Will there be three or more goals in Excelsior vs Twente?

There is a 54% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.1 for Excelsior, 1.7 for Twente).

When is Excelsior vs Twente?

Kick-off is Sunday 1 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Twente?

In 6 league meetings since 2022, Excelsior won 1, Twente won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.