EredivisieMatchday 12Sunday 8 November 2026 · 19:00

Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen prediction

Utrecht

43%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.4% chance

25%

draw

NEC Nijmegen

32%

away win

Win probability: home 43%, draw 25%, away 32%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Utrecht slight favourites to beat NEC Nijmegen at home in the Eredivisie on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC. It gives Utrecht a 43% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives NEC Nijmegen 32%.

GossipBall expects 1.8 goals from Utrecht and 1.5 from NEC Nijmegen, so goals look likely: there is a 63% chance of three or more goals and a 65% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (11%). Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 22% of outcomes, NEC Nijmegen in 17%.

Utrecht are 11th in the table with 12 points from 10 games; NEC Nijmegen are 12th with 11. In their last five league games Utrecht took 10 points (WLWWD) and NEC Nijmegen took 4 (LDDDD). This season Utrecht average 1.40 expected goals (xG) for and 1.78 against per game; NEC Nijmegen average 1.70 for and 1.77 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Utrecht won 6, NEC Nijmegen won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Feb 2026, finished NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Utrecht, a win for Utrecht.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Utrecht goalsColumns: NEC Nijmegen goals

1–111.4%

2–18.9%

1–27.6%

2–26.7%

2–06.0%

1–05.5%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

85%

3 or more goals

63%

4 or more goals

41%

5 or more goals

23%

Both teams score

65%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.3 goals in total: 1.76 for Utrecht and 1.50 for NEC Nijmegen.

Winning margin

Explained

Utrecht by 3

Utrecht by 2

13%

Utrecht by 1

19%

Draw

25%

NEC Nijmegen by 3

NEC Nijmegen by 2

10%

NEC Nijmegen by 1

16%

Each team's goals

Explained

Utrecht expected goals1.76

NEC Nijmegen expected goals1.50

Utrecht keep a clean sheet22%

NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet17%

Utrecht win without conceding17%

NEC Nijmegen win without conceding12%

Utrecht score 2 or more52%

NEC Nijmegen score 2 or more44%

Recent form

Utrecht

D v Zwolle1–1 · 24 Oct

W @ Twente2–1 · 18 Oct

W v Willem II3–1 · 11 Oct

L @ Feyenoord0–5 · 20 Sep

W @ Excelsior2–1 · 13 Sep

NEC Nijmegen

D v Groningen2–2 · 25 Oct

D v Fortuna Sittard2–2 · 18 Oct

D @ Ajax1–1 · 10 Oct

D v Go Ahead Eagles1–1 · 20 Sep

L @ Cambuur0–3 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Utrecht won 6, NEC Nijmegen won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Feb 2026, finished NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Utrecht, a win for Utrecht.

NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Utrecht11 Feb 2026

Utrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen2 Nov 2025

Utrecht 0–1 NEC Nijmegen15 Mar 2025

NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Utrecht24 Nov 2024

Utrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen17 Mar 2024

NEC Nijmegen 3–0 Utrecht23 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

UTNN

1.70

Goals

1.70

2.70

Conceded

1.80

1.40

1.70

1.78

xG against

1.77

13.8

Shots

15.9

4.4

On target

4.7

4.1

Corners

6.3

2.10

Yellow cards

1.30

Clean sheets

90%

Both score

90%

3+ goals

80%

Questions and answers

Who will win Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

GossipBall gives Utrecht a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and NEC Nijmegen 32%. GossipBall makes Utrecht slight favourites to beat NEC Nijmegen at home.

What is the most likely score in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%).

Will both teams score in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

GossipBall gives a 65% chance that both Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen score.

Will there be three or more goals in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

There is a 63% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.3 goals in total (1.8 for Utrecht, 1.5 for NEC Nijmegen).

When is Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Utrecht won 6, NEC Nijmegen won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Feb 2026, finished NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Utrecht, a win for Utrecht.