La LigaMatchday 11Sunday 1 November 2026 · 17:30

Elche vs Valencia prediction

Elche

47%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.0% chance

25%

draw

Valencia

28%

away win

Win probability: home 47%, draw 25%, away 28%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Elche favourites to beat Valencia at home in the La Liga on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC. It gives Elche a 47% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Valencia 28%.

GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Elche and 1.1 from Valencia, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 49% chance of three or more goals and a 52% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Elche keep a clean sheet in 33% of outcomes, Valencia in 22%.

Elche are 15th in the table with 10 points from 10 games; Valencia are 19th with 6. In their last five league games Elche took 8 points (LWDDW) and Valencia took 5 (WLDDL). This season Elche average 1.23 expected goals (xG) for and 1.85 against per game; Valencia average 1.03 for and 1.49 against.

In 6 league meetings since 2021, Elche won 1, Valencia won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Elche 1–0 Valencia, a win for Elche.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Elche goalsColumns: Valencia goals

1–112.0%

1–011.2%

2–19.2%

2–08.3%

0–18.2%

0–07.1%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

93%

2 or more goals

74%

3 or more goals

49%

4 or more goals

27%

5 or more goals

13%

Both teams score

52%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.51 for Elche and 1.11 for Valencia.

Winning margin

Explained

Elche by 3

Elche by 2

14%

Elche by 1

23%

Draw

25%

Valencia by 3

Valencia by 2

Valencia by 1

17%

Each team's goals

Explained

Elche expected goals1.51

Valencia expected goals1.11

Elche keep a clean sheet33%

Valencia keep a clean sheet22%

Elche win without conceding26%

Valencia win without conceding15%

Elche score 2 or more45%

Valencia score 2 or more30%

Recent form

Elche

W @ Rayo Vallecano3–0 · 24 Oct

D @ Villarreal0–0 · 17 Oct

D v Celta Vigo0–0 · 11 Oct

W @ Espanyol3–1 · 18 Sep

L v Real Madrid2–3 · 15 Sep

Valencia

L v Villarreal1–2 · 24 Oct

D v Athletic Club0–0 · 17 Oct

D @ Santander2–2 · 11 Oct

L v Real Sociedad2–3 · 20 Sep

W @ Alaves1–0 · 15 Sep

Head to head

In 6 league meetings since 2021, Elche won 1, Valencia won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Elche 1–0 Valencia, a win for Elche.

Elche 1–0 Valencia11 Apr 2026

Valencia 1–1 Elche10 Jan 2026

Elche 0–2 Valencia23 Apr 2023

Valencia 2–2 Elche15 Oct 2022

Elche 0–1 Valencia19 Mar 2022

Valencia 2–1 Elche11 Dec 2021

Season averages per game

ELVA

1.40

Goals

0.70

1.70

Conceded

1.70

1.23

1.03

1.85

xG against

1.49

11.5

Shots

10.9

4.7

On target

2.9

4.4

Corners

4.2

2.50

Yellow cards

2.50

30%

Clean sheets

30%

60%

Both score

40%

60%

3+ goals

50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Elche vs Valencia?

GossipBall gives Elche a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Valencia 28%. GossipBall makes Elche favourites to beat Valencia at home.

What is the most likely score in Elche vs Valencia?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Elche vs Valencia?

GossipBall gives a 52% chance that both Elche and Valencia score.

Will there be three or more goals in Elche vs Valencia?

There is a 49% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.5 for Elche, 1.1 for Valencia).

When is Elche vs Valencia?

Kick-off is Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Valencia?

In 6 league meetings since 2021, Elche won 1, Valencia won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Elche 1–0 Valencia, a win for Elche.