Ligue 1Matchday 10Sunday 8 November 2026 · 16:15

Brest vs Lyon prediction

Brest

34%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.6% chance

25%

draw

Lyon

41%

away win

Win probability: home 34%, draw 25%, away 41%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Lyon slight favourites to beat Brest away from home in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC. It gives Brest a 34% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Lyon 41%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Brest and 1.6 from Lyon, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 58% chance of three or more goals and a 61% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Brest keep a clean sheet in 20% of outcomes, Lyon in 24%.

Brest are 13th in the table with 9 points from 8 games; Lyon are 5th with 14. In their last five league games Brest took 4 points (LLWDL) and Lyon took 7 (DWLWL). This season Brest average 2.06 expected goals (xG) for and 1.24 against per game; Lyon average 1.50 for and 1.20 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Brest won 3, Lyon won 4 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Jan 2026, finished Lyon 2–1 Brest, a win for Lyon.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Brest goalsColumns: Lyon goals

1–111.6%

1–28.8%

2–17.9%

0–17.3%

1–06.5%

2–26.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

81%

3 or more goals

58%

4 or more goals

36%

5 or more goals

19%

Both teams score

61%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.0 goals in total: 1.42 for Brest and 1.59 for Lyon.

Winning margin

Explained

Brest by 3

Brest by 2

10%

Brest by 1

18%

Draw

25%

Lyon by 3

Lyon by 2

12%

Lyon by 1

20%

Each team's goals

Explained

Brest expected goals1.42

Lyon expected goals1.59

Brest keep a clean sheet20%

Lyon keep a clean sheet24%

Brest win without conceding15%

Lyon win without conceding19%

Brest score 2 or more42%

Lyon score 2 or more47%

Recent form

Brest

L v Nice1–2 · 23 Oct

D @ Lille1–1 · 17 Oct

W v Angers5–1 · 10 Oct

L @ Auxerre1–2 · 20 Sep

L v Paris Saint-Germain0–1 · 13 Sep

Lyon

L @ Paris Saint-Germain0–2 · 26 Oct

W v Nice2–1 · 18 Oct

L @ Lens1–2 · 9 Oct

W v Rennes4–0 · 19 Sep

D @ Paris FC0–0 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Brest won 3, Lyon won 4 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Jan 2026, finished Lyon 2–1 Brest, a win for Lyon.

Lyon 2–1 Brest18 Jan 2026

Brest 0–0 Lyon2 Nov 2025

Lyon 2–1 Brest2 Mar 2025

Brest 2–1 Lyon11 Jan 2025

Lyon 4–3 Brest14 Apr 2024

Brest 1–0 Lyon23 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

BRLY

1.75

Goals

1.62

1.50

Conceded

0.88

2.06

1.50

1.24

xG against

1.20

16.9

Shots

12.1

5.9

On target

4.9

4.6

Corners

4.2

1.50

Yellow cards

1.38

Clean sheets

38%

88%

Both score

50%

75%

3+ goals

50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Brest vs Lyon?

GossipBall gives Brest a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lyon 41%. GossipBall makes Lyon slight favourites to beat Brest away from home.

What is the most likely score in Brest vs Lyon?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 0–1 (7%).

Will both teams score in Brest vs Lyon?

GossipBall gives a 61% chance that both Brest and Lyon score.

Will there be three or more goals in Brest vs Lyon?

There is a 58% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (1.4 for Brest, 1.6 for Lyon).

When is Brest vs Lyon?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Brest and Lyon?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Brest won 3, Lyon won 4 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Jan 2026, finished Lyon 2–1 Brest, a win for Lyon.