Ligue 1Matchday 10Sunday 8 November 2026 · 16:15

Le Mans vs Monaco prediction

Le Mans

30%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

8.9% chance

22%

draw

Monaco

48%

away win

Win probability: home 30%, draw 22%, away 48%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Monaco favourites to beat Le Mans away from home in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC. It gives Le Mans a 30% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Monaco 48%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Le Mans and 2.0 from Monaco, so goals look likely: there is a 70% chance of three or more goals and a 70% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (9%). Le Mans keep a clean sheet in 13% of outcomes, Monaco in 20%.

Le Mans are 15th in the table with 7 points from 8 games; Monaco are 4th with 15. In their last five league games Le Mans took 5 points (DWLLD) and Monaco took 6 (DWDLD). This season Le Mans average 1.52 expected goals (xG) for and 2.06 against per game; Monaco average 1.25 for and 1.26 against.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Le Mans goalsColumns: Monaco goals

1–18.9%

1–28.8%

2–27.0%

2–16.8%

1–36.0%

0–25.5%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

97%

2 or more goals

88%

3 or more goals

70%

4 or more goals

49%

5 or more goals

30%

Both teams score

70%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.6 goals in total: 1.60 for Le Mans and 2.04 for Monaco.

Winning margin

Explained

Le Mans by 3

Le Mans by 2

Le Mans by 1

16%

Draw

22%

Monaco by 3

Monaco by 2

14%

Monaco by 1

20%

Each team's goals

Explained

Le Mans expected goals1.60

Monaco expected goals2.04

Le Mans keep a clean sheet13%

Monaco keep a clean sheet20%

Le Mans win without conceding10%

Monaco win without conceding17%

Le Mans score 2 or more47%

Monaco score 2 or more61%

Recent form

Le Mans

D @ Auxerre1–1 · 25 Oct

L v Toulouse0–3 · 16 Oct

L @ Paris Saint-Germain1–3 · 10 Oct

W v Lorient2–1 · 19 Sep

D v Lens2–2 · 13 Sep

Monaco

D v Lille1–1 · 25 Oct

L @ Lorient0–1 · 18 Oct

D v Toulouse2–2 · 10 Oct

W v Lens2–1 · 18 Sep

D @ Strasbourg1–1 · 12 Sep

Head to head

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

LMMO

1.38

Goals

1.38

2.00

Conceded

0.88

1.52

1.25

2.06

xG against

1.26

10.6

Shots

12.9

3.8

On target

4.6

2.5

Corners

4.0

2.38

Yellow cards

2.25

Clean sheets

25%

88%

Both score

62%

75%

3+ goals

38%

Questions and answers

Who will win Le Mans vs Monaco?

GossipBall gives Le Mans a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monaco 48%. GossipBall makes Monaco favourites to beat Le Mans away from home.

What is the most likely score in Le Mans vs Monaco?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 9% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (9%), 2–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%).

Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Monaco?

GossipBall gives a 70% chance that both Le Mans and Monaco score.

Will there be three or more goals in Le Mans vs Monaco?

There is a 70% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.6 goals in total (1.6 for Le Mans, 2.0 for Monaco).

When is Le Mans vs Monaco?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC.