Ligue 1Matchday 9Saturday 31 October 2026 · 19:45

Troyes vs Le Mans prediction

Troyes

31%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

10.8% chance

24%

draw

Le Mans

45%

away win

Win probability: home 31%, draw 24%, away 45%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Le Mans favourites to beat Troyes away from home in the Ligue 1 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Troyes a 31% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Le Mans 45%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Troyes and 1.8 from Le Mans, so goals look likely: there is a 62% chance of three or more goals and a 63% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (11%). Troyes keep a clean sheet in 17% of outcomes, Le Mans in 24%.

Troyes are 17th in the table with 5 points from 8 games; Le Mans are 15th with 7. In their last five league games Troyes took 1 points (LLLLD) and Le Mans took 5 (DWLLD). This season Troyes average 1.13 expected goals (xG) for and 1.65 against per game; Le Mans average 1.52 for and 2.06 against.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Troyes goalsColumns: Le Mans goals

1–110.8%

1–29.2%

2–17.4%

0–16.8%

2–26.5%

0–26.4%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

83%

3 or more goals

62%

4 or more goals

39%

5 or more goals

22%

Both teams score

63%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.2 goals in total: 1.42 for Troyes and 1.76 for Le Mans.

Winning margin

Explained

Troyes by 3

Troyes by 2

Troyes by 1

17%

Draw

24%

Le Mans by 3

Le Mans by 2

14%

Le Mans by 1

21%

Each team's goals

Explained

Troyes expected goals1.42

Le Mans expected goals1.76

Troyes keep a clean sheet17%

Le Mans keep a clean sheet24%

Troyes win without conceding13%

Le Mans win without conceding20%

Troyes score 2 or more42%

Le Mans score 2 or more53%

Recent form

Troyes

D @ Toulouse0–0 · 25 Oct

L v Lens1–3 · 17 Oct

L v Marseille0–2 · 11 Oct

L @ Angers0–2 · 19 Sep

L @ Lille0–2 · 13 Sep

Le Mans

D @ Auxerre1–1 · 25 Oct

L v Toulouse0–3 · 16 Oct

L @ Paris Saint-Germain1–3 · 10 Oct

W v Lorient2–1 · 19 Sep

D v Lens2–2 · 13 Sep

Head to head

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

TRLM

0.62

Goals

1.38

2.00

Conceded

2.00

1.13

1.52

1.65

xG against

2.06

13.6

Shots

10.6

2.8

On target

3.8

6.5

Corners

2.5

1.62

Yellow cards

2.38

25%

Clean sheets

38%

Both score

88%

38%

3+ goals

75%

Questions and answers

Who will win Troyes vs Le Mans?

GossipBall gives Troyes a 31% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Le Mans 45%. GossipBall makes Le Mans favourites to beat Troyes away from home.

What is the most likely score in Troyes vs Le Mans?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 0–1 (7%).

Will both teams score in Troyes vs Le Mans?

GossipBall gives a 63% chance that both Troyes and Le Mans score.

Will there be three or more goals in Troyes vs Le Mans?

There is a 62% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total (1.4 for Troyes, 1.8 for Le Mans).

When is Troyes vs Le Mans?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.