Premier LeagueMatchday 9Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:00

Bournemouth vs Leeds prediction

Bournemouth

47%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.8% chance

27%

draw

Leeds

27%

away win

Win probability: home 47%, draw 27%, away 27%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Bournemouth favourites to beat Leeds at home in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It gives Bournemouth a 47% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Leeds 27%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Bournemouth and 1.2 from Leeds, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 52% chance of three or more goals and a 56% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 32% of outcomes, Leeds in 20%.

Bournemouth are 13th in the table with 9 points from 8 games; Leeds are 7th with 11. In their last five league games Bournemouth took 7 points (DLLWW) and Leeds took 6 (WDLDD). This season Bournemouth average 1.81 expected goals (xG) for and 1.18 against per game; Leeds average 1.30 for and 1.30 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2022, Bournemouth won 1, Leeds won 1 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 Apr 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Bournemouth goalsColumns: Leeds goals

1–112.8%

2–19.4%

1–09.2%

2–08.2%

0–07.4%

1–26.8%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

93%

2 or more goals

77%

3 or more goals

52%

4 or more goals

30%

5 or more goals

14%

Both teams score

56%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.60 for Bournemouth and 1.15 for Leeds.

Winning margin

Explained

Bournemouth by 3

Bournemouth by 2

14%

Bournemouth by 1

22%

Draw

27%

Leeds by 3

Leeds by 2

Leeds by 1

16%

Each team's goals

Explained

Bournemouth expected goals1.60

Leeds expected goals1.15

Bournemouth keep a clean sheet32%

Leeds keep a clean sheet20%

Bournemouth win without conceding24%

Leeds win without conceding13%

Bournemouth score 2 or more47%

Leeds score 2 or more32%

Recent form

Bournemouth

W @ Manchester United3–0 · 25 Oct

W v Sunderland2–0 · 18 Oct

L @ Chelsea1–5 · 10 Oct

L v Liverpool0–1 · 20 Sep

D v Brentford2–2 · 12 Sep

Leeds

D @ Sunderland0–0 · 25 Oct

D v Manchester United1–1 · 18 Oct

L @ Arsenal1–2 · 10 Oct

D v Crystal Palace0–0 · 20 Sep

W v Newcastle United4–1 · 14 Sep

Head to head

In 4 league meetings since 2022, Bournemouth won 1, Leeds won 1 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 Apr 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds22 Apr 2026

Leeds 2–2 Bournemouth27 Sep 2025

Bournemouth 4–1 Leeds30 Apr 2023

Leeds 4–3 Bournemouth5 Nov 2022

Season averages per game

BOLE

1.50

Goals

1.12

1.62

Conceded

0.75

1.81

1.30

1.18

xG against

1.30

14.5

Shots

11.9

5.0

On target

4.0

4.6

Corners

4.1

2.75

Yellow cards

1.88

25%

Clean sheets

38%

62%

Both score

62%

3+ goals

25%

Questions and answers

Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?

GossipBall gives Bournemouth a 47% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Leeds 27%. GossipBall makes Bournemouth favourites to beat Leeds at home.

What is the most likely score in Bournemouth vs Leeds?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Leeds?

GossipBall gives a 56% chance that both Bournemouth and Leeds score.

Will there be three or more goals in Bournemouth vs Leeds?

There is a 52% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.6 for Bournemouth, 1.2 for Leeds).

When is Bournemouth vs Leeds?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Leeds?

In 4 league meetings since 2022, Bournemouth won 1, Leeds won 1 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 Apr 2026, was a 2–2 draw.