Serie AMatchday 10Monday 2 November 2026 · 19:45

Atalanta vs Parma prediction

Atalanta

61%

home win

likeliest score

1–0

14.3% chance

24%

draw

Parma

15%

away win

Win probability: home 61%, draw 24%, away 15%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Atalanta clear favourites to beat Parma at home in the Serie A on Monday 2 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Atalanta a 61% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Parma 15%.

GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from Atalanta and 0.7 from Parma, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 45% chance of three or more goals and a 43% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–0 (14%). Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 48% of outcomes, Parma in 18%.

Atalanta are 12th in the table with 10 points from 8 games; Parma are 18th with 5. In their last five league games Atalanta took 4 points (LLWLD) and Parma took 4 (WLLLD). This season Atalanta average 1.42 expected goals (xG) for and 2.10 against per game; Parma average 0.80 for and 1.69 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Atalanta won 2, Parma won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Atalanta 4–0 Parma, a win for Atalanta.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Atalanta goalsColumns: Parma goals

1–014.3%

2–012.7%

1–111.1%

2–19.4%

0–08.6%

3–07.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

91%

2 or more goals

71%

3 or more goals

45%

4 or more goals

24%

5 or more goals

11%

Both teams score

43%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.74 for Atalanta and 0.74 for Parma.

Winning margin

Explained

Atalanta by 3

10%

Atalanta by 2

19%

Atalanta by 1

26%

Draw

24%

Parma by 3

Parma by 2

Parma by 1

11%

Each team's goals

Explained

Atalanta expected goals1.74

Parma expected goals0.74

Atalanta keep a clean sheet48%

Parma keep a clean sheet18%

Atalanta win without conceding39%

Parma win without conceding9%

Atalanta score 2 or more52%

Parma score 2 or more17%

Recent form

Atalanta

D v Frosinone4–4 · 25 Oct

L @ Milan2–3 · 18 Oct

W v Venezia3–1 · 12 Oct

L @ Juventus0–2 · 20 Sep

L v Cagliari1–2 · 12 Sep

Parma

D v Udinese0–0 · 28 Oct

L @ Lazio1–2 · 24 Oct

L v Torino0–3 · 19 Oct

L @ Inter0–3 · 10 Oct

W v Genoa2–1 · 20 Sep

Head to head

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Atalanta won 2, Parma won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Atalanta 4–0 Parma, a win for Atalanta.

Atalanta 4–0 Parma25 Jan 2026

Parma 1–1 Atalanta30 Aug 2025

Atalanta 2–3 Parma25 May 2025

Parma 1–3 Atalanta23 Nov 2024

Season averages per game

ATPA

1.75

Goals

0.56

1.88

Conceded

1.67

1.42

0.80

2.10

xG against

1.69

14.4

Shots

10.3

5.1

On target

3.3

4.0

Corners

3.3

0.88

Yellow cards

1.44

12%

Clean sheets

11%

75%

Both score

44%

75%

3+ goals

56%

Questions and answers

Who will win Atalanta vs Parma?

GossipBall gives Atalanta a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Parma 15%. GossipBall makes Atalanta clear favourites to beat Parma at home.

What is the most likely score in Atalanta vs Parma?

The likeliest single score is 1–0, with a 14% chance. The next most likely are 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Parma?

GossipBall gives a 43% chance that both Atalanta and Parma score.

Will there be three or more goals in Atalanta vs Parma?

There is a 45% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.7 for Atalanta, 0.7 for Parma).

When is Atalanta vs Parma?

Kick-off is Monday 2 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Parma?

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Atalanta won 2, Parma won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Atalanta 4–0 Parma, a win for Atalanta.