Serie AMatchday 9Thursday 29 October 2026 · 19:45

Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction

Fiorentina

31%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.2% chance

26%

draw

Atalanta

43%

away win

Win probability: home 31%, draw 26%, away 43%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Atalanta slight favourites to beat Fiorentina away from home in the Serie A on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Fiorentina a 31% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Atalanta 43%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Fiorentina and 1.5 from Atalanta, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 52% chance of three or more goals and a 56% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 22% of outcomes, Atalanta in 29%.

Fiorentina are 19th in the table with 4 points from 8 games; Atalanta are 12th with 10. In their last five league games Fiorentina took 4 points (WDLLL) and Atalanta took 4 (LLWLD). This season Fiorentina average 1.43 expected goals (xG) for and 1.57 against per game; Atalanta average 1.42 for and 2.10 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Fiorentina won 5, Atalanta won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 May 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Fiorentina goalsColumns: Atalanta goals

1–112.2%

0–19.3%

1–29.1%

1–07.6%

2–17.4%

0–27.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

93%

2 or more goals

76%

3 or more goals

52%

4 or more goals

30%

5 or more goals

15%

Both teams score

56%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.24 for Fiorentina and 1.52 for Atalanta.

Winning margin

Explained

Fiorentina by 3

Fiorentina by 2

Fiorentina by 1

18%

Draw

26%

Atalanta by 3

Atalanta by 2

13%

Atalanta by 1

22%

Each team's goals

Explained

Fiorentina expected goals1.24

Atalanta expected goals1.52

Fiorentina keep a clean sheet22%

Atalanta keep a clean sheet29%

Fiorentina win without conceding15%

Atalanta win without conceding22%

Fiorentina score 2 or more35%

Atalanta score 2 or more45%

Recent form

Fiorentina

L @ Inter1–2 · 25 Oct

L v Como1–3 · 18 Oct

L @ Genoa1–2 · 10 Oct

D v Napoli1–1 · 20 Sep

W @ Venezia4–2 · 11 Sep

Atalanta

D v Frosinone4–4 · 25 Oct

L @ Milan2–3 · 18 Oct

W v Venezia3–1 · 12 Oct

L @ Juventus0–2 · 20 Sep

L v Cagliari1–2 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Fiorentina won 5, Atalanta won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 May 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta22 May 2026

Atalanta 2–0 Fiorentina30 Nov 2025

Fiorentina 1–0 Atalanta30 Mar 2025

Atalanta 3–2 Fiorentina15 Sep 2024

Atalanta 2–3 Fiorentina2 Jun 2024

Fiorentina 3–2 Atalanta17 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

FIAT

1.12

Goals

1.75

2.38

Conceded

1.88

1.43

1.42

1.57

xG against

2.10

15.4

Shots

14.4

5.0

On target

5.1

4.8

Corners

4.0

2.12

Yellow cards

0.88

Clean sheets

12%

75%

Both score

75%

88%

3+ goals

75%

Questions and answers

Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

GossipBall gives Fiorentina a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atalanta 43%. GossipBall makes Atalanta slight favourites to beat Fiorentina away from home.

What is the most likely score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

GossipBall gives a 56% chance that both Fiorentina and Atalanta score.

Will there be three or more goals in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

There is a 52% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.2 for Fiorentina, 1.5 for Atalanta).

When is Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Kick-off is Thursday 29 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Atalanta?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Fiorentina won 5, Atalanta won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 May 2026, was a 1–1 draw.