Serie AMatchday 11Sunday 8 November 2026 · 14:00

Genoa vs Milan prediction

Genoa

24%

home win

likeliest score

0–1

12.7% chance

27%

draw

Milan

49%

away win

Win probability: home 24%, draw 27%, away 49%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Milan favourites to beat Genoa away from home in the Serie A on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC. It gives Genoa a 24% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Milan 49%.

GossipBall expects 1.0 goals from Genoa and 1.5 from Milan, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 44% chance of three or more goals and a 48% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 0–1 (13%). Genoa keep a clean sheet in 23% of outcomes, Milan in 39%.

Genoa are 13th in the table with 10 points from 9 games; Milan are 5th with 18. In their last five league games Genoa took 9 points (LWLWW) and Milan took 10 (WDWWL). This season Genoa average 0.88 expected goals (xG) for and 1.33 against per game; Milan average 1.90 for and 1.28 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Genoa won 0, Milan won 5 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Genoa 1–2 Milan, a win for Milan.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Genoa goalsColumns: Milan goals

0–112.7%

1–112.6%

0–29.6%

1–29.2%

0–09.0%

1–08.0%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

91%

2 or more goals

70%

3 or more goals

44%

4 or more goals

23%

5 or more goals

10%

Both teams score

48%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.4 goals in total: 0.95 for Genoa and 1.49 for Milan.

Winning margin

Explained

Genoa by 3

Genoa by 2

Genoa by 1

15%

Draw

27%

Milan by 3

Milan by 2

15%

Milan by 1

24%

Each team's goals

Explained

Genoa expected goals0.95

Milan expected goals1.49

Genoa keep a clean sheet23%

Milan keep a clean sheet39%

Genoa win without conceding14%

Milan win without conceding30%

Genoa score 2 or more25%

Milan score 2 or more44%

Recent form

Genoa

W v Juventus2–0 · 28 Oct

W v Venezia1–0 · 25 Oct

L @ Roma0–2 · 17 Oct

W v Fiorentina2–1 · 10 Oct

L @ Parma1–2 · 20 Sep

Milan

L v Bologna2–4 · 28 Oct

W @ Udinese2–0 · 25 Oct

W v Atalanta3–2 · 18 Oct

D @ Sassuolo1–1 · 11 Oct

W v Lecce3–0 · 20 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Genoa won 0, Milan won 5 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Genoa 1–2 Milan, a win for Milan.

Genoa 1–2 Milan17 May 2026

Milan 1–1 Genoa8 Jan 2026

Genoa 1–2 Milan5 May 2025

Milan 0–0 Genoa15 Dec 2024

Milan 3–3 Genoa5 May 2024

Genoa 0–1 Milan7 Oct 2023

Season averages per game

GEMI

0.89

Goals

2.00

1.44

Conceded

1.22

0.88

1.90

1.33

xG against

1.28

11.0

Shots

12.6

2.9

On target

4.8

4.3

Corners

3.0

2.33

Yellow cards

1.67

22%

Clean sheets

33%

44%

Both score

67%

33%

3+ goals

56%

Questions and answers

Who will win Genoa vs Milan?

GossipBall gives Genoa a 24% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Milan 49%. GossipBall makes Milan favourites to beat Genoa away from home.

What is the most likely score in Genoa vs Milan?

The likeliest single score is 0–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–1 (13%), 0–2 (10%), 1–2 (9%).

Will both teams score in Genoa vs Milan?

GossipBall gives a 48% chance that both Genoa and Milan score.

Will there be three or more goals in Genoa vs Milan?

There is a 44% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.4 goals in total (1.0 for Genoa, 1.5 for Milan).

When is Genoa vs Milan?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Milan?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Genoa won 0, Milan won 5 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Genoa 1–2 Milan, a win for Milan.