Serie AMatchday 10Saturday 31 October 2026 · 19:45

Milan vs Inter prediction

Milan

25%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

10.5% chance

23%

draw

Inter

52%

away win

Win probability: home 25%, draw 23%, away 52%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Inter favourites to beat Milan away from home in the Serie A on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Milan a 25% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Inter 52%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Milan and 1.9 from Inter, so goals look likely: there is a 60% chance of three or more goals and a 60% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (11%). Milan keep a clean sheet in 15% of outcomes, Inter in 29%.

Milan are 5th in the table with 18 points from 9 games; Inter are 1st with 25. In their last five league games Milan took 10 points (WDWWL) and Inter took 13 (DWWWW). This season Milan average 1.90 expected goals (xG) for and 1.28 against per game; Inter average 2.82 for and 1.11 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Milan won 5, Inter won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Mar 2026, finished Milan 1–0 Inter, a win for Milan.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Milan goalsColumns: Inter goals

1–110.5%

1–29.7%

0–18.1%

0–27.8%

2–16.4%

1–36.0%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

82%

3 or more goals

60%

4 or more goals

38%

5 or more goals

20%

Both teams score

60%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.1 goals in total: 1.24 for Milan and 1.88 for Inter.

Winning margin

Explained

Milan by 3

Milan by 2

Milan by 1

15%

Draw

23%

Inter by 3

Inter by 2

16%

Inter by 1

22%

Each team's goals

Explained

Milan expected goals1.24

Inter expected goals1.88

Milan keep a clean sheet15%

Inter keep a clean sheet29%

Milan win without conceding11%

Inter win without conceding24%

Milan score 2 or more35%

Inter score 2 or more56%

Recent form

Milan

L v Bologna2–4 · 28 Oct

W @ Udinese2–0 · 25 Oct

W v Atalanta3–2 · 18 Oct

D @ Sassuolo1–1 · 11 Oct

W v Lecce3–0 · 20 Sep

Inter

W @ Venezia2–0 · 28 Oct

W v Fiorentina2–1 · 25 Oct

W @ Bologna3–1 · 17 Oct

W v Parma3–0 · 10 Oct

D @ Roma2–2 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Milan won 5, Inter won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Mar 2026, finished Milan 1–0 Inter, a win for Milan.

Milan 1–0 Inter8 Mar 2026

Inter 0–1 Milan23 Nov 2025

Milan 1–1 Inter2 Feb 2025

Inter 1–2 Milan22 Sep 2024

Milan 1–2 Inter22 Apr 2024

Inter 5–1 Milan16 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

MIIN

2.00

Goals

2.78

1.22

Conceded

1.11

1.90

2.82

1.28

xG against

1.11

12.6

Shots

22.3

4.8

On target

7.1

3.0

Corners

5.8

1.67

Yellow cards

1.44

33%

Clean sheets

33%

67%

Both score

67%

56%

3+ goals

78%

Questions and answers

Who will win Milan vs Inter?

GossipBall gives Milan a 25% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Inter 52%. GossipBall makes Inter favourites to beat Milan away from home.

What is the most likely score in Milan vs Inter?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (8%), 0–2 (8%).

Will both teams score in Milan vs Inter?

GossipBall gives a 60% chance that both Milan and Inter score.

Will there be three or more goals in Milan vs Inter?

There is a 60% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total (1.2 for Milan, 1.9 for Inter).

When is Milan vs Inter?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Milan and Inter?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Milan won 5, Inter won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Mar 2026, finished Milan 1–0 Inter, a win for Milan.