Serie AMatchday 11Sunday 8 November 2026 · 14:00

Monza vs Atalanta prediction

Monza

20%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

10.2% chance

22%

draw

Atalanta

59%

away win

Win probability: home 20%, draw 22%, away 59%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Atalanta favourites to beat Monza away from home in the Serie A on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC. It gives Monza a 20% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Atalanta 59%.

GossipBall expects 1.1 goals from Monza and 2.0 from Atalanta, so goals look likely: there is a 59% chance of three or more goals and a 57% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (10%). Monza keep a clean sheet in 14% of outcomes, Atalanta in 34%.

Monza are 16th in the table with 7 points from 9 games; Atalanta are 12th with 10. In their last five league games Monza took 6 points (WLWLL) and Atalanta took 4 (LLWLD). This season Monza average 1.56 expected goals (xG) for and 1.39 against per game; Atalanta average 1.42 for and 2.10 against.

In 6 league meetings since 2022, Monza won 0, Atalanta won 6 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 May 2025, finished Monza 0–4 Atalanta, a win for Atalanta.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Monza goalsColumns: Atalanta goals

1–110.2%

1–29.9%

0–29.3%

0–19.1%

1–36.6%

0–36.2%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

81%

3 or more goals

59%

4 or more goals

37%

5 or more goals

19%

Both teams score

57%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.1 goals in total: 1.07 for Monza and 1.99 for Atalanta.

Winning margin

Explained

Monza by 3

Monza by 2

Monza by 1

12%

Draw

22%

Atalanta by 3

10%

Atalanta by 2

18%

Atalanta by 1

23%

Each team's goals

Explained

Monza expected goals1.07

Atalanta expected goals1.99

Monza keep a clean sheet14%

Atalanta keep a clean sheet34%

Monza win without conceding9%

Atalanta win without conceding29%

Monza score 2 or more29%

Atalanta score 2 or more59%

Recent form

Monza

L v Napoli1–4 · 28 Oct

L @ Torino2–3 · 23 Oct

W v Cagliari4–0 · 19 Oct

L @ Lazio1–3 · 11 Oct

W v Sassuolo2–1 · 18 Sep

Atalanta

D v Frosinone4–4 · 25 Oct

L @ Milan2–3 · 18 Oct

W v Venezia3–1 · 12 Oct

L @ Juventus0–2 · 20 Sep

L v Cagliari1–2 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 6 league meetings since 2022, Monza won 0, Atalanta won 6 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 May 2025, finished Monza 0–4 Atalanta, a win for Atalanta.

Monza 0–4 Atalanta4 May 2025

Atalanta 2–0 Monza30 Oct 2024

Monza 1–2 Atalanta21 Apr 2024

Atalanta 3–0 Monza2 Sep 2023

Atalanta 5–2 Monza4 Jun 2023

Monza 0–2 Atalanta5 Sep 2022

Season averages per game

MOAT

1.78

Goals

1.75

2.44

Conceded

1.88

1.56

1.42

1.39

xG against

2.10

13.2

Shots

14.4

5.6

On target

5.1

4.0

Corners

4.0

1.56

Yellow cards

0.88

11%

Clean sheets

12%

89%

Both score

75%

89%

3+ goals

75%

Questions and answers

Who will win Monza vs Atalanta?

GossipBall gives Monza a 20% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atalanta 59%. GossipBall makes Atalanta favourites to beat Monza away from home.

What is the most likely score in Monza vs Atalanta?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 10% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Monza vs Atalanta?

GossipBall gives a 57% chance that both Monza and Atalanta score.

Will there be three or more goals in Monza vs Atalanta?

There is a 59% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total (1.1 for Monza, 2.0 for Atalanta).

When is Monza vs Atalanta?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Atalanta?

In 6 league meetings since 2022, Monza won 0, Atalanta won 6 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 May 2025, finished Monza 0–4 Atalanta, a win for Atalanta.