Serie AMatchday 11Sunday 8 November 2026 · 11:30

Napoli vs Lazio prediction

Napoli

46%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.9% chance

27%

draw

Lazio

26%

away win

Win probability: home 46%, draw 27%, away 26%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Napoli favourites to beat Lazio at home in the Serie A on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 11:30 UTC. It gives Napoli a 46% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Lazio 26%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Napoli and 1.0 from Lazio, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 43% chance of three or more goals and a 48% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Napoli keep a clean sheet in 37% of outcomes, Lazio in 24%.

Napoli are 6th in the table with 14 points from 9 games; Lazio are 2nd with 25. In their last five league games Napoli took 8 points (DWLDW) and Lazio took 15 (WWWWW). This season Napoli average 1.87 expected goals (xG) for and 1.34 against per game; Lazio average 1.71 for and 1.15 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Napoli won 4, Lazio won 4 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Napoli 0–2 Lazio, a win for Lazio.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Napoli goalsColumns: Lazio goals

1–112.9%

1–012.4%

0–09.3%

2–09.0%

2–18.9%

0–18.6%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

91%

2 or more goals

70%

3 or more goals

43%

4 or more goals

22%

5 or more goals

10%

Both teams score

48%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.4 goals in total: 1.42 for Napoli and 0.99 for Lazio.

Winning margin

Explained

Napoli by 3

Napoli by 2

14%

Napoli by 1

24%

Draw

27%

Lazio by 3

Lazio by 2

Lazio by 1

17%

Each team's goals

Explained

Napoli expected goals1.42

Lazio expected goals0.99

Napoli keep a clean sheet37%

Lazio keep a clean sheet24%

Napoli win without conceding28%

Lazio win without conceding15%

Napoli score 2 or more41%

Lazio score 2 or more26%

Recent form

Napoli

W @ Monza4–1 · 28 Oct

D v Roma3–3 · 24 Oct

L @ Venezia0–1 · 17 Oct

W v Frosinone3–0 · 10 Oct

D @ Fiorentina1–1 · 20 Sep

Lazio

W @ Sassuolo6–2 · 27 Oct

W v Parma2–1 · 24 Oct

W @ Juventus3–0 · 18 Oct

W v Monza3–1 · 11 Oct

W @ Venezia2–0 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Napoli won 4, Lazio won 4 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Napoli 0–2 Lazio, a win for Lazio.

Napoli 0–2 Lazio18 Apr 2026

Lazio 0–2 Napoli4 Jan 2026

Lazio 2–2 Napoli15 Feb 2025

Napoli 0–1 Lazio8 Dec 2024

Lazio 0–0 Napoli28 Jan 2024

Napoli 1–2 Lazio2 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

NALA

1.89

Goals

2.44

1.22

Conceded

0.78

1.87

1.71

1.34

xG against

1.15

16.4

Shots

14.1

6.1

On target

4.7

5.4

Corners

5.0

0.78

Yellow cards

1.67

33%

Clean sheets

44%

56%

Both score

56%

3+ goals

67%

Questions and answers

Who will win Napoli vs Lazio?

GossipBall gives Napoli a 46% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Lazio 26%. GossipBall makes Napoli favourites to beat Lazio at home.

What is the most likely score in Napoli vs Lazio?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (12%), 0–0 (9%), 2–0 (9%).

Will both teams score in Napoli vs Lazio?

GossipBall gives a 48% chance that both Napoli and Lazio score.

Will there be three or more goals in Napoli vs Lazio?

There is a 43% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.4 goals in total (1.4 for Napoli, 1.0 for Lazio).

When is Napoli vs Lazio?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Lazio?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Napoli won 4, Lazio won 4 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Napoli 0–2 Lazio, a win for Lazio.