Serie AMatchday 11Saturday 7 November 2026 · 17:00

Parma vs Bologna prediction

Parma

23%

home win

likeliest score

0–1

14.8% chance

28%

draw

Bologna

49%

away win

Win probability: home 23%, draw 28%, away 49%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Bologna favourites to beat Parma away from home in the Serie A on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC. It gives Parma a 23% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives Bologna 49%.

GossipBall expects 0.8 goals from Parma and 1.4 from Bologna, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 38% chance of three or more goals and a 43% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 0–1 (15%). Parma keep a clean sheet in 25% of outcomes, Bologna in 43%.

Parma are 18th in the table with 5 points from 9 games; Bologna are 11th with 11. In their last five league games Parma took 4 points (WLLLD) and Bologna took 10 (DWLWW). This season Parma average 0.80 expected goals (xG) for and 1.69 against per game; Bologna average 1.44 for and 1.30 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Parma won 2, Bologna won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, finished Bologna 0–1 Parma, a win for Parma.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Parma goalsColumns: Bologna goals

0–114.8%

1–112.9%

0–011.3%

0–210.3%

1–08.9%

1–28.6%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

89%

2 or more goals

65%

3 or more goals

38%

4 or more goals

18%

5 or more goals

Both teams score

43%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.2 goals in total: 0.84 for Parma and 1.37 for Bologna.

Winning margin

Explained

Parma by 3

Parma by 2

Parma by 1

15%

Draw

28%

Bologna by 3

Bologna by 2

15%

Bologna by 1

25%

Each team's goals

Explained

Parma expected goals0.84

Bologna expected goals1.37

Parma keep a clean sheet25%

Bologna keep a clean sheet43%

Parma win without conceding14%

Bologna win without conceding32%

Parma score 2 or more20%

Bologna score 2 or more40%

Recent form

Parma

D v Udinese0–0 · 28 Oct

L @ Lazio1–2 · 24 Oct

L v Torino0–3 · 19 Oct

L @ Inter0–3 · 10 Oct

W v Genoa2–1 · 20 Sep

Bologna

W @ Milan4–2 · 28 Oct

W @ Cagliari2–0 · 24 Oct

L v Inter1–3 · 17 Oct

W @ Lecce2–1 · 11 Oct

D v Torino1–1 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Parma won 2, Bologna won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, finished Bologna 0–1 Parma, a win for Parma.

Bologna 0–1 Parma8 Feb 2026

Parma 1–3 Bologna2 Nov 2025

Parma 2–0 Bologna22 Feb 2025

Bologna 0–0 Parma6 Oct 2024

Season averages per game

PABO

0.56

Goals

1.33

1.67

Conceded

1.33

0.80

1.44

1.69

xG against

1.30

10.3

Shots

11.8

3.3

On target

3.9

3.3

Corners

3.9

1.44

Yellow cards

1.89

11%

Clean sheets

11%

44%

Both score

56%

3+ goals

44%

Questions and answers

Who will win Parma vs Bologna?

GossipBall gives Parma a 23% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Bologna 49%. GossipBall makes Bologna favourites to beat Parma away from home.

What is the most likely score in Parma vs Bologna?

The likeliest single score is 0–1, with a 15% chance. The next most likely are 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%), 0–2 (10%).

Will both teams score in Parma vs Bologna?

GossipBall gives a 43% chance that both Parma and Bologna score.

Will there be three or more goals in Parma vs Bologna?

There is a 38% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.2 goals in total (0.8 for Parma, 1.4 for Bologna).

When is Parma vs Bologna?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Parma won 2, Bologna won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, finished Bologna 0–1 Parma, a win for Parma.