Serie AMatchday 10Monday 2 November 2026 · 17:30

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction

Sassuolo

33%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.0% chance

25%

draw

Fiorentina

41%

away win

Win probability: home 33%, draw 25%, away 41%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Fiorentina slight favourites to beat Sassuolo away from home in the Serie A on Monday 2 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC. It gives Sassuolo a 33% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Fiorentina 41%.

GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Sassuolo and 1.5 from Fiorentina, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 54% chance of three or more goals and a 58% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 22% of outcomes, Fiorentina in 27%.

Sassuolo are 15th in the table with 8 points from 9 games; Fiorentina are 19th with 4. In their last five league games Sassuolo took 1 points (LDLLL) and Fiorentina took 4 (WDLLL). This season Sassuolo average 1.44 expected goals (xG) for and 1.72 against per game; Fiorentina average 1.43 for and 1.57 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Sassuolo won 3, Fiorentina won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 26 Apr 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Sassuolo goalsColumns: Fiorentina goals

1–112.0%

1–28.9%

0–18.6%

2–17.8%

1–07.5%

0–26.7%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

94%

2 or more goals

78%

3 or more goals

54%

4 or more goals

32%

5 or more goals

16%

Both teams score

58%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.33 for Sassuolo and 1.51 for Fiorentina.

Winning margin

Explained

Sassuolo by 3

Sassuolo by 2

10%

Sassuolo by 1

18%

Draw

25%

Fiorentina by 3

Fiorentina by 2

12%

Fiorentina by 1

21%

Each team's goals

Explained

Sassuolo expected goals1.33

Fiorentina expected goals1.51

Sassuolo keep a clean sheet22%

Fiorentina keep a clean sheet27%

Sassuolo win without conceding16%

Fiorentina win without conceding20%

Sassuolo score 2 or more38%

Fiorentina score 2 or more45%

Recent form

Sassuolo

L v Lazio2–6 · 27 Oct

L @ Como0–2 · 24 Oct

L @ Frosinone2–4 · 16 Oct

D v Milan1–1 · 11 Oct

L @ Monza1–2 · 18 Sep

Fiorentina

L @ Inter1–2 · 25 Oct

L v Como1–3 · 18 Oct

L @ Genoa1–2 · 10 Oct

D v Napoli1–1 · 20 Sep

W @ Venezia4–2 · 11 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Sassuolo won 3, Fiorentina won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 26 Apr 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

Fiorentina 0–0 Sassuolo26 Apr 2026

Sassuolo 3–1 Fiorentina6 Dec 2025

Fiorentina 5–1 Sassuolo28 Apr 2024

Sassuolo 1–0 Fiorentina6 Jan 2024

Sassuolo 1–3 Fiorentina2 Jun 2023

Fiorentina 2–1 Sassuolo7 Jan 2023

Season averages per game

SAFI

1.56

Goals

1.12

2.44

Conceded

2.38

1.44

1.43

1.72

xG against

1.57

14.0

Shots

15.4

5.1

On target

5.0

4.0

Corners

4.8

1.33

Yellow cards

2.12

Clean sheets

89%

Both score

75%

78%

3+ goals

88%

Questions and answers

Who will win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

GossipBall gives Sassuolo a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Fiorentina 41%. GossipBall makes Fiorentina slight favourites to beat Sassuolo away from home.

What is the most likely score in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%).

Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

GossipBall gives a 58% chance that both Sassuolo and Fiorentina score.

Will there be three or more goals in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

There is a 54% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.3 for Sassuolo, 1.5 for Fiorentina).

When is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Kick-off is Monday 2 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Fiorentina?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Sassuolo won 3, Fiorentina won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 26 Apr 2026, was a 0–0 draw.