Mainz vs Union Berlin result and stats
Win probability: home 51%, draw 27%, away 22%
Match report
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersUnion Berlin won 3–1 away at Mainz in the Bundesliga on Sunday 10 May 2026. This match was played before GossipBall launched. In a retrospective test using only results available before kick-off, GossipBall's ratings gave Mainz 51%, the draw 27% and Union Berlin 22%, so an away win had a 22% chance. It would have been an upset.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 30 October 2026, 05:56 UTC
Match stats
MAUB
14Shots16
3On target9
7Corners8
11Fouls10
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
0Half-time goals1
Recent form
Mainz
W @ St Pauli2–1 · 3 May
L v Bayern Munich3–4 · 25 Apr
D @ Gladbach1–1 · 19 Apr
L v Freiburg0–1 · 12 Apr
W @ Hoffenheim2–1 · 4 Apr
Union Berlin
D v FC Köln2–2 · 2 May
L @ RB Leipzig1–3 · 24 Apr
L v Wolfsburg1–2 · 18 Apr
L @ Heidenheim1–3 · 11 Apr
D v St Pauli1–1 · 5 Apr
Head to head
In 9 league meetings since 2021, Mainz won 0, Union Berlin won 5 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Jan 2026, was a 2–2 draw.
Union Berlin 2–2 Mainz10 Jan 2026
Union Berlin 2–1 Mainz19 Jan 2025
Mainz 1–1 Union Berlin24 Aug 2024
Mainz 1–1 Union Berlin7 Feb 2024
Union Berlin 4–1 Mainz20 Aug 2023
Union Berlin 2–1 Mainz4 Feb 2023