BundesligaMatchday 8Friday 30 October 2026 · 19:30

Elversberg vs Mainz prediction

Elversberg

38%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

9.9% chance

24%

draw

Mainz

38%

away win

Win probability: home 38%, draw 24%, away 38%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees Elversberg against Mainz as too close to call in the Bundesliga on Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:30 UTC. It gives Elversberg a 38% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Mainz 38%.

GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from Elversberg and 1.8 from Mainz, so goals look likely: there is a 68% chance of three or more goals and a 69% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (10%). Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 17% of outcomes, Mainz in 17%.

Elversberg are 8th in the table with 10 points from 7 games; Mainz are 7th with 10. In their last five league games Elversberg took 4 points (LDLWL) and Mainz took 6 (LWLWL). This season Elversberg average 1.48 expected goals (xG) for and 2.29 against per game; Mainz average 2.21 for and 1.59 against.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Elversberg goalsColumns: Mainz goals

1–19.9%

1–28.1%

2–18.1%

2–27.1%

1–34.8%

3–14.7%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

96%

2 or more goals

87%

3 or more goals

68%

4 or more goals

46%

5 or more goals

28%

Both teams score

69%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.5 goals in total: 1.75 for Elversberg and 1.76 for Mainz.

Winning margin

Explained

Elversberg by 3

Elversberg by 2

12%

Elversberg by 1

18%

Draw

24%

Mainz by 3

Mainz by 2

12%

Mainz by 1

18%

Each team's goals

Explained

Elversberg expected goals1.75

Mainz expected goals1.76

Elversberg keep a clean sheet17%

Mainz keep a clean sheet17%

Elversberg win without conceding14%

Mainz win without conceding14%

Elversberg score 2 or more52%

Mainz score 2 or more52%

Recent form

Elversberg

L @ RB Leipzig0–4 · 24 Oct

W v Augsburg4–3 · 17 Oct

L @ Union Berlin0–1 · 10 Oct

D @ Schalke 040–0 · 20 Sep

L v Bayern Munich1–2 · 13 Sep

Mainz

L v Werder Bremen2–3 · 24 Oct

W @ Schalke 041–0 · 17 Oct

L v Bayer Leverkusen3–4 · 10 Oct

W @ Gladbach4–3 · 19 Sep

L v Eintracht Frankfurt1–3 · 12 Sep

Head to head

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

ELMA

1.71

Goals

2.29

2.14

Conceded

1.86

1.48

2.21

2.29

xG against

1.59

10.3

Shots

17.7

4.1

On target

6.3

4.0

Corners

5.0

2.00

Yellow cards

2.29

14%

Clean sheets

43%

57%

Both score

57%

71%

3+ goals

71%

Questions and answers

Who will win Elversberg vs Mainz?

GossipBall gives Elversberg a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mainz 38%. GossipBall sees Elversberg against Mainz as too close to call.

What is the most likely score in Elversberg vs Mainz?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 10% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%).

Will both teams score in Elversberg vs Mainz?

GossipBall gives a 69% chance that both Elversberg and Mainz score.

Will there be three or more goals in Elversberg vs Mainz?

There is a 68% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.5 goals in total (1.7 for Elversberg, 1.8 for Mainz).

When is Elversberg vs Mainz?

Kick-off is Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:30 UTC.