BundesligaMatchday 9Friday 6 November 2026 · 19:30

Hamburg vs Gladbach prediction

Hamburg

39%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.9% chance

27%

draw

Gladbach

34%

away win

Win probability: home 39%, draw 27%, away 34%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Hamburg slight favourites to beat Gladbach at home in the Bundesliga on Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:30 UTC. It gives Hamburg a 39% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Gladbach 34%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Hamburg and 1.3 from Gladbach, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 52% chance of three or more goals and a 57% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Hamburg keep a clean sheet in 27% of outcomes, Gladbach in 24%.

Hamburg are 11th in the table with 9 points from 7 games; Gladbach are 18th with 3. In their last five league games Hamburg took 9 points (LWWWL) and Gladbach took 3 (LLLLW). This season Hamburg average 0.99 expected goals (xG) for and 1.80 against per game; Gladbach average 1.59 for and 2.34 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Hamburg won 0, Gladbach won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Hamburg goalsColumns: Gladbach goals

1–112.9%

2–18.6%

1–08.2%

1–28.0%

0–17.6%

0–07.2%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

93%

2 or more goals

77%

3 or more goals

52%

4 or more goals

30%

5 or more goals

15%

Both teams score

57%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.43 for Hamburg and 1.33 for Gladbach.

Winning margin

Explained

Hamburg by 3

Hamburg by 2

12%

Hamburg by 1

20%

Draw

27%

Gladbach by 3

Gladbach by 2

10%

Gladbach by 1

19%

Each team's goals

Explained

Hamburg expected goals1.43

Gladbach expected goals1.33

Hamburg keep a clean sheet27%

Gladbach keep a clean sheet24%

Hamburg win without conceding19%

Gladbach win without conceding17%

Hamburg score 2 or more42%

Gladbach score 2 or more38%

Recent form

Hamburg

L @ Paderborn0–1 · 24 Oct

W v Stuttgart1–0 · 17 Oct

W @ Hoffenheim3–2 · 10 Oct

W v FC Köln2–1 · 19 Sep

L @ RB Leipzig0–5 · 13 Sep

Gladbach

W @ Stuttgart3–2 · 23 Oct

L v Hoffenheim1–2 · 18 Oct

L @ FC Köln1–2 · 11 Oct

L v Mainz3–4 · 19 Sep

L @ Freiburg0–5 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Hamburg won 0, Gladbach won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

Hamburg 0–0 Gladbach17 Jan 2026

Gladbach 0–0 Hamburg24 Aug 2025

Season averages per game

HAGL

0.86

Goals

1.57

2.29

Conceded

3.14

0.99

1.59

1.80

xG against

2.34

10.7

Shots

15.3

3.3

On target

4.7

3.7

Corners

5.9

1.43

Yellow cards

3.29

14%

Clean sheets

29%

Both score

71%

57%

3+ goals

100%

Questions and answers

Who will win Hamburg vs Gladbach?

GossipBall gives Hamburg a 39% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Gladbach 34%. GossipBall makes Hamburg slight favourites to beat Gladbach at home.

What is the most likely score in Hamburg vs Gladbach?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%).

Will both teams score in Hamburg vs Gladbach?

GossipBall gives a 57% chance that both Hamburg and Gladbach score.

Will there be three or more goals in Hamburg vs Gladbach?

There is a 52% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.4 for Hamburg, 1.3 for Gladbach).

When is Hamburg vs Gladbach?

Kick-off is Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Hamburg and Gladbach?

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Hamburg won 0, Gladbach won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.