Hamburg vs Stuttgart result and stats
Win probability: home 25%, draw 24%, away 51%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersHamburg beat Stuttgart 1–0 at home in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Hamburg 25%, the draw 24% and Stuttgart 51%, so a home win had a 25% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Hamburg 1.50, Stuttgart 2.28, so Stuttgart created the better chances. Hamburg had 14 shots (3 on target) to Stuttgart's 24 (5 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
HAST
1.50Expected goals2.28
14Shots24
3On target5
5Corners9
12Fouls9
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
0Half-time goals0
Recent form
Hamburg
W @ Hoffenheim3–2 · 10 Oct
W v FC Köln2–1 · 19 Sep
L @ RB Leipzig0–5 · 13 Sep
L v Mainz0–5 · 6 Sep
L @ Borussia Dortmund0–2 · 29 Aug
Stuttgart
W @ Paderborn2–0 · 10 Oct
L v Borussia Dortmund0–1 · 19 Sep
L @ Hoffenheim1–2 · 12 Sep
W v FC Köln4–1 · 4 Sep
L @ Bayern Munich1–5 · 28 Aug
Head to head
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Hamburg won 1, Stuttgart won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburg, a win for Stuttgart.
Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburg12 Apr 2026
Hamburg 2–1 Stuttgart30 Nov 2025
Season averages per game
HAST
0.86Goals1.43
2.29Conceded1.86
0.99xG1.94
1.80xG against2.44
10.7Shots16.9
3.3On target5.7
3.7Corners6.6
1.43Yellow cards1.14
14%Clean sheets14%
29%Both score57%
57%3+ goals57%