Hoffenheim vs Hamburg result and stats
Win probability: home 57%, draw 23%, away 21%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersHamburg won 3–2 away at Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Hoffenheim 57%, the draw 23% and Hamburg 21%, so an away win had a 21% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Hoffenheim 0.93, Hamburg 1.28, so Hamburg created the better chances. Hoffenheim had 17 shots (4 on target) to Hamburg's 15 (4 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
HOHA
0.93Expected goals1.28
17Shots15
4On target4
7Corners3
11Fouls16
1Yellow cards0
1Red cards0
1Half-time goals1
Recent form
Hoffenheim
L @ Paderborn1–3 · 20 Sep
W v Stuttgart2–1 · 12 Sep
L v Borussia Dortmund2–3 · 5 Sep
L @ FC Köln2–3 · 29 Aug
L @ Gladbach0–4 · 16 May
Hamburg
W v FC Köln2–1 · 19 Sep
L @ RB Leipzig0–5 · 13 Sep
L v Mainz0–5 · 6 Sep
L @ Borussia Dortmund0–2 · 29 Aug
D @ Bayer Leverkusen1–1 · 16 May
Head to head
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Hoffenheim won 2, Hamburg won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Hamburg 1–2 Hoffenheim, a win for Hoffenheim.
Hamburg 1–2 Hoffenheim25 Apr 2026
Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburg13 Dec 2025
Season averages per game
HOHA
2.00Goals0.86
2.00Conceded2.29
2.01xG0.99
1.31xG against1.80
18.1Shots10.7
5.4On target3.3
6.4Corners3.7
2.14Yellow cards1.43
14%Clean sheets14%
86%Both score29%
100%3+ goals57%