Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen result and stats
Win probability: home 28%, draw 25%, away 47%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersBayer Leverkusen won 4–3 away at Mainz in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Mainz 28%, the draw 25% and Bayer Leverkusen 47%, so an away win had a 47% chance. GossipBall's favourite result came in.
On expected goals it finished Mainz 2.87, Bayer Leverkusen 1.69, so Mainz created the better chances. Mainz had 23 shots (5 on target) to Bayer Leverkusen's 16 (7 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
MABL
2.87Expected goals1.69
23Shots16
5On target7
4Corners3
11Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
2Half-time goals2
Recent form
Mainz
W @ Gladbach4–3 · 19 Sep
L v Eintracht Frankfurt1–3 · 12 Sep
W @ Hamburg5–0 · 6 Sep
D v Paderborn0–0 · 29 Aug
W @ Heidenheim2–0 · 16 May
Bayer Leverkusen
W v RB Leipzig2–0 · 20 Sep
D @ Augsburg2–2 · 12 Sep
W v Union Berlin4–0 · 5 Sep
L @ Elversberg2–3 · 29 Aug
D v Hamburg1–1 · 16 May
Head to head
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Mainz won 2, Bayer Leverkusen won 6 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 28 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.
Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Mainz28 Feb 2026
Mainz 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen18 Oct 2025
Mainz 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen17 May 2025
Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 Mainz14 Jan 2025
Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 Mainz23 Feb 2024
Mainz 0–3 Bayer Leverkusen30 Sep 2023
Season averages per game
MABL
2.29Goals2.29
1.86Conceded1.71
2.21xG1.97
1.59xG against1.61
17.7Shots18.1
6.3On target5.4
5.0Corners6.7
2.29Yellow cards1.71
43%Clean sheets29%
57%Both score57%
71%3+ goals86%