Mainz vs Werder Bremen result and stats
Win probability: home 52%, draw 25%, away 23%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersWerder Bremen won 3–2 away at Mainz in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Mainz 52%, the draw 25% and Werder Bremen 23%, so an away win had a 23% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Mainz 1.70, Werder Bremen 2.69, so Werder Bremen created the better chances. Mainz had 18 shots (8 on target) to Werder Bremen's 17 (8 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
MAWB
1.70Expected goals2.69
18Shots17
8On target8
6Corners6
7Fouls5
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals2
Recent form
Mainz
W @ Schalke 041–0 · 17 Oct
L v Bayer Leverkusen3–4 · 10 Oct
W @ Gladbach4–3 · 19 Sep
L v Eintracht Frankfurt1–3 · 12 Sep
W @ Hamburg5–0 · 6 Sep
Werder Bremen
D v Paderborn2–2 · 17 Oct
D @ Borussia Dortmund2–2 · 9 Oct
W v Augsburg3–2 · 19 Sep
D @ FC Köln1–1 · 12 Sep
W v RB Leipzig3–1 · 5 Sep
Head to head
In 8 league meetings since 2022, Mainz won 2, Werder Bremen won 4 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 15 Mar 2026, finished Werder Bremen 0–2 Mainz, a win for Mainz.
Werder Bremen 0–2 Mainz15 Mar 2026
Mainz 1–1 Werder Bremen1 Nov 2025
Werder Bremen 1–0 Mainz31 Jan 2025
Mainz 1–2 Werder Bremen15 Sep 2024
Mainz 0–1 Werder Bremen3 Feb 2024
Werder Bremen 4–0 Mainz2 Sep 2023
Season averages per game
MAWB
2.29Goals2.14
1.86Conceded2.00
2.21xG1.77
1.59xG against1.64
17.7Shots14.4
6.3On target7.0
5.0Corners4.0
2.29Yellow cards1.14
43%Clean sheets0%
57%Both score100%
71%3+ goals86%