ChampionshipMatchday 14Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 19:45

Blackburn vs Stoke prediction

Blackburn

41%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.8% chance

30%

draw

Stoke

28%

away win

Win probability: home 41%, draw 30%, away 28%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Blackburn slight favourites to beat Stoke at home in the Championship on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Blackburn a 41% chance of winning, puts the draw at 30% and gives Stoke 28%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Blackburn and 0.9 from Stoke, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 36% chance of three or more goals and a 43% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (14%). Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 39% of outcomes, Stoke in 30%.

Blackburn are 10th in the table with 18 points from 12 games; Stoke are 9th with 20. In their last five league games Blackburn took 10 points (DWWLW) and Stoke took 10 (WWLWD). This season Blackburn average 1.02 expected goals (xG) for and 1.75 against per game; Stoke average 0.92 for and 1.61 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Blackburn won 3, Stoke won 5 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Blackburn goalsColumns: Stoke goals

1–113.8%

1–013.6%

0–012.3%

0–110.6%

2–08.5%

2–18.0%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

88%

2 or more goals

63%

3 or more goals

36%

4 or more goals

17%

5 or more goals

Both teams score

43%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.1 goals in total: 1.20 for Blackburn and 0.94 for Stoke.

Winning margin

Explained

Blackburn by 3

Blackburn by 2

12%

Blackburn by 1

23%

Draw

30%

Stoke by 3

Stoke by 2

Stoke by 1

18%

Each team's goals

Explained

Blackburn expected goals1.20

Stoke expected goals0.94

Blackburn keep a clean sheet39%

Stoke keep a clean sheet30%

Blackburn win without conceding27%

Stoke win without conceding18%

Blackburn score 2 or more34%

Stoke score 2 or more24%

Recent form

Blackburn

W v Wrexham2–0 · 24 Oct

L @ West Brom2–3 · 17 Oct

W @ Bristol City1–0 · 13 Oct

W v Cardiff2–1 · 10 Oct

D @ Portsmouth2–2 · 19 Sep

Stoke

D v Bristol City0–0 · 24 Oct

W @ Derby1–0 · 17 Oct

L v Middlesbrough2–3 · 13 Oct

W @ Bolton2–1 · 10 Oct

W v Sheffield United2–1 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Blackburn won 3, Stoke won 5 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

Stoke 1–1 Blackburn11 Apr 2026

Blackburn 1–1 Stoke4 Oct 2025

Stoke 1–0 Blackburn12 Mar 2025

Blackburn 0–2 Stoke6 Nov 2024

Blackburn 3–1 Stoke10 Feb 2024

Stoke 0–3 Blackburn25 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

BLST

1.58

Goals

1.50

1.33

Conceded

1.33

1.02

0.92

1.75

xG against

1.61

11.6

Shots

11.3

4.1

On target

3.5

6.2

Corners

4.4

2.50

Yellow cards

2.00

25%

Clean sheets

33%

75%

Both score

67%

75%

3+ goals

67%

Questions and answers

Who will win Blackburn vs Stoke?

GossipBall gives Blackburn a 41% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Stoke 28%. GossipBall makes Blackburn slight favourites to beat Stoke at home.

What is the most likely score in Blackburn vs Stoke?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 14% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (14%), 0–0 (12%), 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Stoke?

GossipBall gives a 43% chance that both Blackburn and Stoke score.

Will there be three or more goals in Blackburn vs Stoke?

There is a 36% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.1 goals in total (1.2 for Blackburn, 0.9 for Stoke).

When is Blackburn vs Stoke?

Kick-off is Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Stoke?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Blackburn won 3, Stoke won 5 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, was a 1–1 draw.