ChampionshipMatchday 13Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:00

Burnley vs Portsmouth prediction

Burnley

59%

home win

likeliest score

1–0

13.1% chance

24%

draw

Portsmouth

17%

away win

Win probability: home 59%, draw 24%, away 17%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Burnley favourites to beat Portsmouth at home in the Championship on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It gives Burnley a 59% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Portsmouth 17%.

GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from Burnley and 0.8 from Portsmouth, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 47% chance of three or more goals and a 46% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–0 (13%). Burnley keep a clean sheet in 44% of outcomes, Portsmouth in 18%.

Burnley are 22nd in the table with 8 points from 12 games; Portsmouth are 11th with 18. In their last five league games Burnley took 5 points (DWDLL) and Portsmouth took 10 (LWWDW). This season Burnley average 1.29 expected goals (xG) for and 1.63 against per game; Portsmouth average 1.31 for and 1.14 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2024, Burnley won 1, Portsmouth won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 1 Feb 2025, was a 0–0 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Burnley goalsColumns: Portsmouth goals

1–013.1%

2–011.7%

1–111.4%

2–19.6%

0–08.2%

3–06.8%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

73%

3 or more goals

47%

4 or more goals

25%

5 or more goals

12%

Both teams score

46%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.74 for Burnley and 0.82 for Portsmouth.

Winning margin

Explained

Burnley by 3

10%

Burnley by 2

18%

Burnley by 1

25%

Draw

24%

Portsmouth by 3

Portsmouth by 2

Portsmouth by 1

12%

Each team's goals

Explained

Burnley expected goals1.74

Portsmouth expected goals0.82

Burnley keep a clean sheet44%

Portsmouth keep a clean sheet18%

Burnley win without conceding36%

Portsmouth win without conceding9%

Burnley score 2 or more52%

Portsmouth score 2 or more20%

Recent form

Burnley

L @ Lincoln1–4 · 24 Oct

L v Wolves1–2 · 16 Oct

D v Charlton2–2 · 13 Oct

W @ Watford4–0 · 10 Oct

D v Derby1–1 · 19 Sep

Portsmouth

W v Millwall2–1 · 24 Oct

D @ Wolves1–1 · 20 Oct

W @ Norwich1–0 · 17 Oct

W v Sheffield United3–2 · 14 Oct

L @ Southampton0–1 · 11 Oct

Head to head

In 2 league meetings since 2024, Burnley won 1, Portsmouth won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 1 Feb 2025, was a 0–0 draw.

Portsmouth 0–0 Burnley1 Feb 2025

Burnley 2–1 Portsmouth21 Sep 2024

Season averages per game

BUPO

1.42

Goals

1.33

2.08

Conceded

1.25

1.29

1.31

1.63

xG against

1.14

13.8

Shots

14.6

4.2

On target

3.9

4.7

Corners

5.9

2.00

Yellow cards

1.50

Clean sheets

25%

92%

Both score

58%

75%

3+ goals

50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Burnley vs Portsmouth?

GossipBall gives Burnley a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Portsmouth 17%. GossipBall makes Burnley favourites to beat Portsmouth at home.

What is the most likely score in Burnley vs Portsmouth?

The likeliest single score is 1–0, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Burnley vs Portsmouth?

GossipBall gives a 46% chance that both Burnley and Portsmouth score.

Will there be three or more goals in Burnley vs Portsmouth?

There is a 47% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.7 for Burnley, 0.8 for Portsmouth).

When is Burnley vs Portsmouth?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Portsmouth?

In 2 league meetings since 2024, Burnley won 1, Portsmouth won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 1 Feb 2025, was a 0–0 draw.