ChampionshipMatchday 14Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 19:45

Derby vs Norwich prediction

Derby

38%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.4% chance

26%

draw

Norwich

35%

away win

Win probability: home 38%, draw 26%, away 35%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees Derby against Norwich as too close to call in the Championship on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Derby a 38% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Norwich 35%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Derby and 1.4 from Norwich, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 53% chance of three or more goals and a 57% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Derby keep a clean sheet in 26% of outcomes, Norwich in 24%.

Derby are 23rd in the table with 7 points from 12 games; Norwich are 20th with 12. In their last five league games Derby took 3 points (DDLLD) and Norwich took 3 (LLLLW). This season Derby average 0.98 expected goals (xG) for and 1.76 against per game; Norwich average 1.44 for and 1.49 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Derby won 1, Norwich won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 21 Apr 2026, finished Norwich 2–1 Derby, a win for Norwich.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Derby goalsColumns: Norwich goals

1–112.4%

2–18.5%

1–08.4%

1–28.1%

0–18.0%

0–06.6%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

93%

2 or more goals

77%

3 or more goals

53%

4 or more goals

30%

5 or more goals

15%

Both teams score

57%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.42 for Derby and 1.36 for Norwich.

Winning margin

Explained

Derby by 3

Derby by 2

11%

Derby by 1

20%

Draw

26%

Norwich by 3

Norwich by 2

10%

Norwich by 1

19%

Each team's goals

Explained

Derby expected goals1.42

Norwich expected goals1.36

Derby keep a clean sheet26%

Norwich keep a clean sheet24%

Derby win without conceding19%

Norwich win without conceding18%

Derby score 2 or more42%

Norwich score 2 or more39%

Recent form

Derby

D @ Sheffield United1–1 · 24 Oct

L v Stoke0–1 · 17 Oct

L @ QPR1–4 · 14 Oct

D v Wrexham1–1 · 10 Oct

D @ Burnley1–1 · 19 Sep

Norwich

W @ Charlton3–1 · 24 Oct

L v Portsmouth0–1 · 17 Oct

L v Southampton0–1 · 14 Oct

L @ Swansea1–2 · 10 Oct

L v Bolton3–4 · 20 Sep

Head to head

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Derby won 1, Norwich won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 21 Apr 2026, finished Norwich 2–1 Derby, a win for Norwich.

Norwich 2–1 Derby21 Apr 2026

Derby 1–0 Norwich21 Oct 2025

Norwich 1–1 Derby8 Feb 2025

Derby 2–3 Norwich28 Sep 2024

Season averages per game

DENO

0.83

Goals

1.67

1.75

Conceded

1.83

0.98

1.44

1.76

xG against

1.49

12.6

Shots

14.1

3.8

On target

5.0

5.7

Corners

4.4

2.42

Yellow cards

2.25

Clean sheets

58%

Both score

67%

50%

3+ goals

75%

Questions and answers

Who will win Derby vs Norwich?

GossipBall gives Derby a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Norwich 35%. GossipBall sees Derby against Norwich as too close to call.

What is the most likely score in Derby vs Norwich?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%).

Will both teams score in Derby vs Norwich?

GossipBall gives a 57% chance that both Derby and Norwich score.

Will there be three or more goals in Derby vs Norwich?

There is a 53% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.4 for Derby, 1.4 for Norwich).

When is Derby vs Norwich?

Kick-off is Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Norwich?

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Derby won 1, Norwich won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 21 Apr 2026, finished Norwich 2–1 Derby, a win for Norwich.