Derby
Derby are 23rd in the Championship with 7 points from 12 games (1 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats), having scored 10 and conceded 21.
They average 0.98 expected goals for and 1.76 against per game, and GossipBall ranks them 15th of 24 teams in the league on its ratings.
Simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times, GossipBall expects Derby to finish with about 50 points, with a 0% chance of winning the league, 0% of a top-four finish and 38% of finishing in the bottom three.
Next up: away at Millwall on Saturday 31 October 2026, where GossipBall gives Derby a 24% chance of winning.
15 / 24GOSSIPBALL rating rank
0.98xG per game
1.76xG against per game
8%clean sheets
49.7expected final points
0%chance to win the league
Next matches
Millwall
Derby
Win probability: home 49%, draw 27%, away 24%
Likeliest score 1–1
Derby vs Norwich prediction (Championship):
Derby
Norwich
Win probability: home 38%, draw 26%, away 35%
Likeliest score 1–1
Derby vs Bolton prediction (Championship):
Derby
Bolton
Win probability: home 48%, draw 24%, away 27%
Likeliest score 1–1
Results this season
24 Oct
Sheffield United1
Derby1
Upset
Win probability: home 48%, draw 26%, away 26%
3.0–1.2match xG
Derby 0–1 Stoke result and stats:
17 Oct
Derby0
Stoke1
Upset
Win probability: home 46%, draw 28%, away 26%
1.0–0.6match xG
QPR 4–1 Derby result and stats:
14 Oct
QPR4
Derby1
Called correctly
Win probability: home 39%, draw 27%, away 34%
1.5–0.9match xG
Derby 1–1 Wrexham result and stats:
10 Oct
Derby1
Wrexham1
Upset
Win probability: home 41%, draw 26%, away 33%
0.6–1.5match xG
Burnley 1–1 Derby result and stats:
19 Sep
Burnley1
Derby1
Upset
Win probability: home 61%, draw 24%, away 15%
0.5–1.8match xG
Derby 1–2 Birmingham result and stats:
12 Sep
Derby1
Birmingham2
Upset
Win probability: home 42%, draw 28%, away 30%
1.1–3.2match xG
Derby 0–1 West Brom result and stats:
9 Sep
Derby0
West Brom1
Upset
Win probability: home 42%, draw 28%, away 30%
1.3–0.4match xG
West Ham 3–0 Derby result and stats:
5 Sep
West Ham3
Derby0
Called correctly
Win probability: home 56%, draw 22%, away 22%
3.8–0.1match xG
Portsmouth 0–2 Derby result and stats:
1 Sep
Portsmouth0
Derby2
Called correctly
Win probability: home 35%, draw 27%, away 38%
0.8–0.5match xG
Derby 0–3 Swansea result and stats:
29 Aug
Derby0
Swansea3
Upset
Win probability: home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%
0.7–3.0match xG
Derby 2–2 Cardiff result and stats:
22 Aug
Derby2
Cardiff2
Upset
Win probability: home 56%, draw 24%, away 19%
1.6–2.0match xG
Charlton 2–1 Derby result and stats:
15 Aug
Charlton2
Derby1
Upset
Win probability: home 32%, draw 30%, away 38%
1.0–1.0match xG
Season stats per game
Goals scored0.83
Goals conceded1.75
Expected goals (xG)0.98
xG against1.76
Shots12.6
Shots on target3.8
Shots on target against5.8
Conversion (goals per shot on target)22%
Corners5.7
Fouls13.0
Yellow cards2.42
Red cards0.08
Clean sheets8%
Both teams scored58%
3 or more goals50%
Failed to score33%
GOSSIPBALL rating
Attack (vs league average)-0.03
Defence (positive = concedes less)-0.02
Overall-0.05