ChampionshipMatchday 13Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:00

Millwall vs Derby prediction

Millwall

49%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.8% chance

27%

draw

Derby

24%

away win

Win probability: home 49%, draw 27%, away 24%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Millwall favourites to beat Derby at home in the Championship on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It gives Millwall a 49% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Derby 24%.

GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Millwall and 1.0 from Derby, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 44% chance of three or more goals and a 48% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Millwall keep a clean sheet in 39% of outcomes, Derby in 23%.

Millwall are 13th in the table with 15 points from 12 games; Derby are 23rd with 7. In their last five league games Millwall took 5 points (DWLDL) and Derby took 3 (DDLLD). This season Millwall average 1.77 expected goals (xG) for and 1.33 against per game; Derby average 0.98 for and 1.76 against.

In 6 league meetings since 2021, Millwall won 3, Derby won 0 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Mar 2026, finished Millwall 1–0 Derby, a win for Millwall.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Millwall goalsColumns: Derby goals

1–112.8%

1–012.5%

2–09.6%

2–19.2%

0–09.1%

0–17.8%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

91%

2 or more goals

71%

3 or more goals

44%

4 or more goals

23%

5 or more goals

10%

Both teams score

48%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.4 goals in total: 1.49 for Millwall and 0.95 for Derby.

Winning margin

Explained

Millwall by 3

Millwall by 2

15%

Millwall by 1

24%

Draw

27%

Derby by 3

Derby by 2

Derby by 1

15%

Each team's goals

Explained

Millwall expected goals1.49

Derby expected goals0.95

Millwall keep a clean sheet39%

Derby keep a clean sheet23%

Millwall win without conceding29%

Derby win without conceding13%

Millwall score 2 or more44%

Derby score 2 or more25%

Recent form

Millwall

L @ Portsmouth1–2 · 24 Oct

D v Lincoln2–2 · 17 Oct

L v Swansea0–1 · 13 Oct

W @ Preston1–0 · 10 Oct

D v West Ham2–2 · 19 Sep

Derby

D @ Sheffield United1–1 · 24 Oct

L v Stoke0–1 · 17 Oct

L @ QPR1–4 · 14 Oct

D v Wrexham1–1 · 10 Oct

D @ Burnley1–1 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 6 league meetings since 2021, Millwall won 3, Derby won 0 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Mar 2026, finished Millwall 1–0 Derby, a win for Millwall.

Millwall 1–0 Derby10 Mar 2026

Derby 1–1 Millwall10 Dec 2025

Derby 0–1 Millwall22 Feb 2025

Millwall 1–1 Derby19 Oct 2024

Derby 1–2 Millwall23 Feb 2022

Millwall 1–1 Derby6 Nov 2021

Season averages per game

MIDE

1.58

Goals

0.83

1.67

Conceded

1.75

1.77

0.98

1.33

xG against

1.76

13.9

Shots

12.6

3.9

On target

3.8

5.8

Corners

5.7

2.00

Yellow cards

2.42

33%

Clean sheets

50%

Both score

58%

75%

3+ goals

50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Millwall vs Derby?

GossipBall gives Millwall a 49% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Derby 24%. GossipBall makes Millwall favourites to beat Derby at home.

What is the most likely score in Millwall vs Derby?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?

GossipBall gives a 48% chance that both Millwall and Derby score.

Will there be three or more goals in Millwall vs Derby?

There is a 44% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.4 goals in total (1.5 for Millwall, 1.0 for Derby).

When is Millwall vs Derby?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?

In 6 league meetings since 2021, Millwall won 3, Derby won 0 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Mar 2026, finished Millwall 1–0 Derby, a win for Millwall.