Derby vs Stoke result and stats
Win probability: home 46%, draw 28%, away 26%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersStoke won 1–0 away at Derby in the Championship on Saturday 17 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Derby 46%, the draw 28% and Stoke 26%, so an away win had a 26% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Derby 0.99, Stoke 0.59, so Derby created the better chances. Derby had 17 shots (3 on target) to Stoke's 12 (4 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
DEST
0.99Expected goals0.59
17Shots12
3On target4
6Corners4
12Fouls10
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
0Half-time goals0
Referee: O Langford
Recent form
Derby
L @ QPR1–4 · 14 Oct
D v Wrexham1–1 · 10 Oct
D @ Burnley1–1 · 19 Sep
L v Birmingham1–2 · 12 Sep
L v West Brom0–1 · 9 Sep
Stoke
L v Middlesbrough2–3 · 13 Oct
W @ Bolton2–1 · 10 Oct
W v Sheffield United2–1 · 19 Sep
W @ Watford2–1 · 12 Sep
D @ Cardiff1–1 · 8 Sep
Head to head
In 6 league meetings since 2021, Derby won 3, Stoke won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 6 Apr 2026, finished Derby 2–0 Stoke, a win for Derby.
Derby 2–0 Stoke6 Apr 2026
Stoke 3–1 Derby9 Aug 2025
Derby 0–0 Stoke3 May 2025
Stoke 2–1 Derby2 Nov 2024
Stoke 1–2 Derby30 Dec 2021
Derby 2–1 Stoke18 Sep 2021
Season averages per game
DEST
0.83Goals1.50
1.75Conceded1.33
0.98xG0.92
1.76xG against1.61
12.6Shots11.3
3.8On target3.5
5.7Corners4.4
2.42Yellow cards2.00
8%Clean sheets33%
58%Both score67%
50%3+ goals67%