Burnley vs Derby result and stats
Win probability: home 61%, draw 24%, away 15%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersBurnley and Derby drew 1–1 in the Championship on Saturday 19 September 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Burnley 61%, the draw 24% and Derby 15%, so a draw had a 24% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Burnley 0.45, Derby 1.75, so Derby created the better chances. Burnley had 6 shots (2 on target) to Derby's 17 (6 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
BUDE
0.45Expected goals1.75
6Shots17
2On target6
4Corners6
9Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals0
Referee: S Martin
Recent form
Burnley
L @ Swansea1–3 · 12 Sep
D @ Wrexham1–1 · 8 Sep
L v Bristol City1–2 · 5 Sep
D v Middlesbrough1–1 · 2 Sep
L @ Norwich1–4 · 29 Aug
Derby
L v Birmingham1–2 · 12 Sep
L v West Brom0–1 · 9 Sep
L @ West Ham0–3 · 5 Sep
W @ Portsmouth2–0 · 1 Sep
L v Swansea0–3 · 29 Aug
Head to head
In 2 league meetings since 2024, Burnley won 0, Derby won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Apr 2025, was a 0–0 draw.
Derby 0–0 Burnley8 Apr 2025
Burnley 0–0 Derby10 Dec 2024
Season averages per game
BUDE
1.42Goals0.83
2.08Conceded1.75
1.29xG0.98
1.63xG against1.76
13.8Shots12.6
4.2On target3.8
4.7Corners5.7
2.00Yellow cards2.42
8%Clean sheets8%
92%Both score58%
75%3+ goals50%