Derby vs Birmingham result and stats
Win probability: home 42%, draw 28%, away 30%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersBirmingham won 2–1 away at Derby in the Championship on Saturday 12 September 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Derby 42%, the draw 28% and Birmingham 30%, so an away win had a 30% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Derby 1.12, Birmingham 3.17, so Birmingham created the better chances. Derby had 18 shots (4 on target) to Birmingham's 19 (9 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
DEBI
1.12Expected goals3.17
18Shots19
4On target9
10Corners4
8Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals1
Referee: J Busby
Recent form
Derby
L v West Brom0–1 · 9 Sep
L @ West Ham0–3 · 5 Sep
W @ Portsmouth2–0 · 1 Sep
L v Swansea0–3 · 29 Aug
D v Cardiff2–2 · 22 Aug
Birmingham
L @ Norwich1–2 · 9 Sep
D v Wolves2–2 · 6 Sep
D v Southampton1–1 · 1 Sep
W @ Wrexham2–1 · 28 Aug
D v Bristol City2–2 · 22 Aug
Head to head
In 4 league meetings since 2021, Derby won 1, Birmingham won 1 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Mar 2026, finished Derby 1–0 Birmingham, a win for Derby.
Derby 1–0 Birmingham21 Mar 2026
Birmingham 1–1 Derby26 Dec 2025
Derby 2–2 Birmingham30 Jan 2022
Birmingham 2–0 Derby10 Sep 2021
Season averages per game
DEBI
0.83Goals1.67
1.75Conceded1.00
0.98xG1.70
1.76xG against1.38
12.6Shots13.2
3.8On target4.6
5.7Corners5.5
2.42Yellow cards2.08
8%Clean sheets33%
58%Both score58%
50%3+ goals67%