Derby vs Cardiff result and stats
Win probability: home 56%, draw 24%, away 19%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersDerby and Cardiff drew 2–2 in the Championship on Saturday 22 August 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Derby 56%, the draw 24% and Cardiff 19%, so a draw had a 24% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Derby 1.62, Cardiff 1.98, so Cardiff created the better chances. Derby had 15 shots (7 on target) to Cardiff's 16 (7 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
DECA
1.62Expected goals1.98
15Shots16
7On target7
7Corners7
12Fouls10
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals2
Referee: R Ricardo
Recent form
Derby
L @ Charlton1–2 · 15 Aug
L v Sheffield United1–2 · 2 May
W @ QPR3–2 · 25 Apr
L @ Norwich1–2 · 21 Apr
W v Oxford1–0 · 18 Apr
Cardiff
D v Wrexham1–1 · 17 Aug
L @ Norwich2–4 · 3 May
D v West Brom0–0 · 26 Apr
D v Oxford1–1 · 21 Apr
L @ Sheffield United0–2 · 18 Apr
Head to head
In 4 league meetings since 2022, Derby won 1, Cardiff won 3 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Jan 2025, finished Cardiff 2–1 Derby, a win for Cardiff.
Cardiff 2–1 Derby25 Jan 2025
Derby 1–0 Cardiff14 Sep 2024
Derby 0–1 Cardiff7 May 2022
Cardiff 1–0 Derby1 Mar 2022
Season averages per game
DECA
0.83Goals1.58
1.75Conceded1.42
0.98xG1.93
1.76xG against1.67
12.6Shots17.1
3.8On target5.9
5.7Corners6.8
2.42Yellow cards1.75
8%Clean sheets8%
58%Both score75%
50%3+ goals58%