ChampionshipMatchday 15Friday 6 November 2026 · 20:00

Derby vs Bolton prediction

Derby

48%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.3% chance

24%

draw

Bolton

27%

away win

Win probability: home 48%, draw 24%, away 27%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Derby favourites to beat Bolton at home in the Championship on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Derby a 48% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Bolton 27%.

GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from Derby and 1.3 from Bolton, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 58% chance of three or more goals and a 59% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (11%). Derby keep a clean sheet in 28% of outcomes, Bolton in 17%.

Derby are 23rd in the table with 7 points from 12 games; Bolton are 18th with 14. In their last five league games Derby took 3 points (DDLLD) and Bolton took 7 (WLWDL). This season Derby average 0.98 expected goals (xG) for and 1.76 against per game; Bolton average 1.36 for and 1.91 against.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Derby goalsColumns: Bolton goals

1–111.3%

2–19.5%

1–08.3%

2–07.6%

1–26.9%

2–26.0%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

80%

3 or more goals

58%

4 or more goals

35%

5 or more goals

18%

Both teams score

59%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.0 goals in total: 1.75 for Derby and 1.26 for Bolton.

Winning margin

Explained

Derby by 3

Derby by 2

15%

Derby by 1

22%

Draw

24%

Bolton by 3

Bolton by 2

Bolton by 1

16%

Each team's goals

Explained

Derby expected goals1.75

Bolton expected goals1.26

Derby keep a clean sheet28%

Bolton keep a clean sheet17%

Derby win without conceding23%

Bolton win without conceding12%

Derby score 2 or more52%

Bolton score 2 or more36%

Recent form

Derby

D @ Sheffield United1–1 · 24 Oct

L v Stoke0–1 · 17 Oct

L @ QPR1–4 · 14 Oct

D v Wrexham1–1 · 10 Oct

D @ Burnley1–1 · 19 Sep

Bolton

L v Middlesbrough1–5 · 23 Oct

D @ Southampton0–0 · 17 Oct

W @ Wolves3–1 · 13 Oct

L v Stoke1–2 · 10 Oct

W @ Norwich4–3 · 20 Sep

Head to head

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

DEBO

0.83

Goals

1.33

1.75

Conceded

1.92

0.98

1.36

1.76

xG against

1.91

12.6

Shots

13.7

3.8

On target

4.7

5.7

Corners

5.1

2.42

Yellow cards

1.67

Clean sheets

25%

58%

Both score

58%

50%

3+ goals

67%

Questions and answers

Who will win Derby vs Bolton?

GossipBall gives Derby a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bolton 27%. GossipBall makes Derby favourites to beat Bolton at home.

What is the most likely score in Derby vs Bolton?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Derby vs Bolton?

GossipBall gives a 59% chance that both Derby and Bolton score.

Will there be three or more goals in Derby vs Bolton?

There is a 58% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (1.7 for Derby, 1.3 for Bolton).

When is Derby vs Bolton?

Kick-off is Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.