ChampionshipMatchday 13Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:00

Middlesbrough vs Charlton prediction

Middlesbrough

63%

home win

likeliest score

1–0

13.1% chance

23%

draw

Charlton

14%

away win

Win probability: home 63%, draw 23%, away 14%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Middlesbrough clear favourites to beat Charlton at home in the Championship on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It gives Middlesbrough a 63% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Charlton 14%.

GossipBall expects 1.9 goals from Middlesbrough and 0.8 from Charlton, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 49% chance of three or more goals and a 45% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–0 (13%). Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 47% of outcomes, Charlton in 16%.

Middlesbrough are 1st in the table with 25 points from 12 games; Charlton are 19th with 14. In their last five league games Middlesbrough took 11 points (DWWDW) and Charlton took 2 (LDDLL). This season Middlesbrough average 2.17 expected goals (xG) for and 1.01 against per game; Charlton average 0.99 for and 1.55 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Middlesbrough won 1, Charlton won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Mar 2026, finished Middlesbrough 0–1 Charlton, a win for Charlton.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Middlesbrough goalsColumns: Charlton goals

1–013.1%

2–012.6%

1–110.7%

2–19.6%

3–07.8%

0–07.6%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

74%

3 or more goals

49%

4 or more goals

27%

5 or more goals

13%

Both teams score

45%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.86 for Middlesbrough and 0.76 for Charlton.

Winning margin

Explained

Middlesbrough by 3

11%

Middlesbrough by 2

20%

Middlesbrough by 1

25%

Draw

23%

Charlton by 3

Charlton by 2

Charlton by 1

10%

Each team's goals

Explained

Middlesbrough expected goals1.86

Charlton expected goals0.76

Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet47%

Charlton keep a clean sheet16%

Middlesbrough win without conceding39%

Charlton win without conceding8%

Middlesbrough score 2 or more56%

Charlton score 2 or more18%

Recent form

Middlesbrough

W @ Bolton5–1 · 23 Oct

D v Cardiff2–2 · 17 Oct

W @ Stoke3–2 · 13 Oct

W v Wolves1–0 · 10 Oct

D @ Birmingham2–2 · 19 Sep

Charlton

L v Norwich1–3 · 24 Oct

L @ Watford0–2 · 17 Oct

D @ Burnley2–2 · 13 Oct

D v Bristol City1–1 · 10 Oct

L @ Cardiff1–3 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Middlesbrough won 1, Charlton won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Mar 2026, finished Middlesbrough 0–1 Charlton, a win for Charlton.

Middlesbrough 0–1 Charlton11 Mar 2026

Charlton 1–2 Middlesbrough9 Dec 2025

Season averages per game

MICH

2.25

Goals

0.92

1.42

Conceded

1.50

2.17

0.99

1.01

xG against

1.55

20.1

Shots

10.0

6.7

On target

3.0

6.3

Corners

4.4

1.00

Yellow cards

2.08

17%

Clean sheets

25%

83%

Both score

58%

75%

3+ goals

50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

GossipBall gives Middlesbrough a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Charlton 14%. GossipBall makes Middlesbrough clear favourites to beat Charlton at home.

What is the most likely score in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

The likeliest single score is 1–0, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

GossipBall gives a 45% chance that both Middlesbrough and Charlton score.

Will there be three or more goals in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

There is a 49% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.9 for Middlesbrough, 0.8 for Charlton).

When is Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Charlton?

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Middlesbrough won 1, Charlton won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 11 Mar 2026, finished Middlesbrough 0–1 Charlton, a win for Charlton.