ChampionshipMatchday 13Saturday 31 October 2026 · 12:30

Norwich vs Watford prediction

Norwich

55%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.3% chance

24%

draw

Watford

22%

away win

Win probability: home 55%, draw 24%, away 22%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Norwich favourites to beat Watford at home in the Championship on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC. It gives Norwich a 55% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Watford 22%.

GossipBall expects 1.8 goals from Norwich and 1.0 from Watford, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 54% chance of three or more goals and a 55% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (11%). Norwich keep a clean sheet in 35% of outcomes, Watford in 17%.

Norwich are 20th in the table with 12 points from 12 games; Watford are 21st with 11. In their last five league games Norwich took 3 points (LLLLW) and Watford took 3 (LLLWL). This season Norwich average 1.44 expected goals (xG) for and 1.49 against per game; Watford average 1.03 for and 1.89 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Norwich won 3, Watford won 5 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 29 Dec 2025, finished Norwich 0–1 Watford, a win for Watford.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Norwich goalsColumns: Watford goals

1–111.3%

1–010.0%

2–19.8%

2–09.4%

0–06.2%

3–15.9%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

94%

2 or more goals

78%

3 or more goals

54%

4 or more goals

32%

5 or more goals

16%

Both teams score

55%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.80 for Norwich and 1.05 for Watford.

Winning margin

Explained

Norwich by 3

Norwich by 2

17%

Norwich by 1

24%

Draw

24%

Watford by 3

Watford by 2

Watford by 1

14%

Each team's goals

Explained

Norwich expected goals1.80

Watford expected goals1.05

Norwich keep a clean sheet35%

Watford keep a clean sheet17%

Norwich win without conceding29%

Watford win without conceding10%

Norwich score 2 or more54%

Watford score 2 or more28%

Recent form

Norwich

W @ Charlton3–1 · 24 Oct

L v Portsmouth0–1 · 17 Oct

L v Southampton0–1 · 14 Oct

L @ Swansea1–2 · 10 Oct

L v Bolton3–4 · 20 Sep

Watford

L @ Wolves0–1 · 24 Oct

W v Charlton2–0 · 17 Oct

L @ Cardiff1–5 · 13 Oct

L v Burnley0–4 · 10 Oct

L @ Bristol City0–1 · 18 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Norwich won 3, Watford won 5 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 29 Dec 2025, finished Norwich 0–1 Watford, a win for Watford.

Norwich 0–1 Watford29 Dec 2025

Watford 3–2 Norwich6 Dec 2025

Watford 0–1 Norwich1 Feb 2025

Norwich 4–1 Watford21 Sep 2024

Norwich 4–2 Watford13 Feb 2024

Watford 3–2 Norwich28 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

NOWA

1.67

Goals

0.83

1.83

Conceded

1.67

1.44

1.03

1.49

xG against

1.89

14.1

Shots

12.2

5.0

On target

4.0

4.4

Corners

3.5

2.25

Yellow cards

2.75

Clean sheets

67%

Both score

50%

75%

3+ goals

42%

Questions and answers

Who will win Norwich vs Watford?

GossipBall gives Norwich a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Watford 22%. GossipBall makes Norwich favourites to beat Watford at home.

What is the most likely score in Norwich vs Watford?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%).

Will both teams score in Norwich vs Watford?

GossipBall gives a 55% chance that both Norwich and Watford score.

Will there be three or more goals in Norwich vs Watford?

There is a 54% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.8 for Norwich, 1.0 for Watford).

When is Norwich vs Watford?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Watford?

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Norwich won 3, Watford won 5 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 29 Dec 2025, finished Norwich 0–1 Watford, a win for Watford.