ChampionshipMatchday 15Saturday 7 November 2026 · 12:30

Portsmouth vs Stoke prediction

Portsmouth

44%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.4% chance

29%

draw

Stoke

28%

away win

Win probability: home 44%, draw 29%, away 28%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Portsmouth slight favourites to beat Stoke at home in the Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC. It gives Portsmouth a 44% chance of winning, puts the draw at 29% and gives Stoke 28%.

GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Portsmouth and 1.0 from Stoke, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 42% chance of three or more goals and a 47% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 36% of outcomes, Stoke in 26%.

Portsmouth are 11th in the table with 18 points from 12 games; Stoke are 9th with 20. In their last five league games Portsmouth took 10 points (LWWDW) and Stoke took 10 (WWLWD). This season Portsmouth average 1.31 expected goals (xG) for and 1.14 against per game; Stoke average 0.92 for and 1.61 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Portsmouth won 2, Stoke won 2 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Stoke 1–3 Portsmouth, a win for Portsmouth.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Portsmouth goalsColumns: Stoke goals

1–113.4%

1–012.3%

0–010.1%

0–19.2%

2–18.6%

2–08.5%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

90%

2 or more goals

68%

3 or more goals

42%

4 or more goals

21%

5 or more goals

Both teams score

47%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.3 goals in total: 1.33 for Portsmouth and 1.01 for Stoke.

Winning margin

Explained

Portsmouth by 3

Portsmouth by 2

13%

Portsmouth by 1

23%

Draw

29%

Stoke by 3

Stoke by 2

Stoke by 1

17%

Each team's goals

Explained

Portsmouth expected goals1.33

Stoke expected goals1.01

Portsmouth keep a clean sheet36%

Stoke keep a clean sheet26%

Portsmouth win without conceding26%

Stoke win without conceding16%

Portsmouth score 2 or more38%

Stoke score 2 or more27%

Recent form

Portsmouth

W v Millwall2–1 · 24 Oct

D @ Wolves1–1 · 20 Oct

W @ Norwich1–0 · 17 Oct

W v Sheffield United3–2 · 14 Oct

L @ Southampton0–1 · 11 Oct

Stoke

D v Bristol City0–0 · 24 Oct

W @ Derby1–0 · 17 Oct

L v Middlesbrough2–3 · 13 Oct

W @ Bolton2–1 · 10 Oct

W v Sheffield United2–1 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Portsmouth won 2, Stoke won 2 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Stoke 1–3 Portsmouth, a win for Portsmouth.

Stoke 1–3 Portsmouth25 Apr 2026

Portsmouth 0–1 Stoke25 Oct 2025

Portsmouth 3–1 Stoke22 Jan 2025

Stoke 6–1 Portsmouth2 Oct 2024

Season averages per game

POST

1.33

Goals

1.50

1.25

Conceded

1.33

1.31

0.92

1.14

xG against

1.61

14.6

Shots

11.3

3.9

On target

3.5

5.9

Corners

4.4

1.50

Yellow cards

2.00

25%

Clean sheets

33%

58%

Both score

67%

50%

3+ goals

67%

Questions and answers

Who will win Portsmouth vs Stoke?

GossipBall gives Portsmouth a 44% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Stoke 28%. GossipBall makes Portsmouth slight favourites to beat Stoke at home.

What is the most likely score in Portsmouth vs Stoke?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (12%), 0–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Stoke?

GossipBall gives a 47% chance that both Portsmouth and Stoke score.

Will there be three or more goals in Portsmouth vs Stoke?

There is a 42% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.3 goals in total (1.3 for Portsmouth, 1.0 for Stoke).

When is Portsmouth vs Stoke?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Stoke?

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Portsmouth won 2, Stoke won 2 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Stoke 1–3 Portsmouth, a win for Portsmouth.