Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen result and stats
Win probability: home 57%, draw 22%, away 21%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersAjax and NEC Nijmegen drew 1–1 in the Eredivisie on Saturday 10 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Ajax 57%, the draw 22% and NEC Nijmegen 21%, so a draw had a 22% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Ajax 1.78, NEC Nijmegen 1.05, so Ajax created the better chances. Ajax had 18 shots (5 on target) to NEC Nijmegen's 8 (2 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
AJNN
1.78Expected goals1.05
18Shots8
5On target2
4Corners4
8Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals1
Recent form
Ajax
D v Excelsior2–2 · 19 Sep
W v Willem II5–1 · 15 Sep
W @ Fortuna Sittard5–1 · 12 Sep
L v PSV Eindhoven1–3 · 5 Sep
W @ Telstar4–0 · 30 Aug
NEC Nijmegen
D v Go Ahead Eagles1–1 · 20 Sep
L @ Cambuur0–3 · 12 Sep
D v Excelsior2–2 · 8 Sep
L v Feyenoord1–3 · 5 Sep
W @ Zwolle3–1 · 29 Aug
Head to head
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Ajax won 5, NEC Nijmegen won 1 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.
Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen21 Feb 2026
NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Ajax20 Dec 2025
Ajax 0–3 NEC Nijmegen11 May 2025
NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Ajax1 Dec 2024
Ajax 2–2 NEC Nijmegen18 Feb 2024
NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Ajax3 Dec 2023
Season averages per game
AJNN
2.90Goals1.70
1.30Conceded1.80
2.42xG1.70
1.34xG against1.77
22.2Shots15.9
7.6On target4.7
6.7Corners6.3
1.90Yellow cards1.30
20%Clean sheets0%
80%Both score90%
80%3+ goals80%