EredivisieMatchday 12Sunday 8 November 2026 · 15:45

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction

AZ Alkmaar

55%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.4% chance

24%

draw

Groningen

20%

away win

Win probability: home 55%, draw 24%, away 20%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes AZ Alkmaar favourites to beat Groningen at home in the Eredivisie on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:45 UTC. It gives AZ Alkmaar a 55% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Groningen 20%.

GossipBall expects 1.9 goals from AZ Alkmaar and 1.1 from Groningen, so goals look likely: there is a 59% chance of three or more goals and a 59% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (11%). AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 33% of outcomes, Groningen in 14%.

AZ Alkmaar are 5th in the table with 20 points from 10 games; Groningen are 8th with 15. In their last five league games AZ Alkmaar took 5 points (DWLDL) and Groningen took 8 (DWWLD). This season AZ Alkmaar average 2.17 expected goals (xG) for and 1.22 against per game; Groningen average 1.71 for and 1.98 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, AZ Alkmaar won 5, Groningen won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished Groningen 3–0 AZ Alkmaar, a win for Groningen.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: AZ Alkmaar goalsColumns: Groningen goals

1–111.4%

2–19.9%

2–08.9%

1–07.9%

3–16.4%

0–05.9%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

94%

2 or more goals

82%

3 or more goals

59%

4 or more goals

37%

5 or more goals

19%

Both teams score

59%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.1 goals in total: 1.94 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.11 for Groningen.

Winning margin

Explained

AZ Alkmaar by 3

10%

AZ Alkmaar by 2

17%

AZ Alkmaar by 1

22%

Draw

24%

Groningen by 3

Groningen by 2

Groningen by 1

12%

Each team's goals

Explained

AZ Alkmaar expected goals1.94

Groningen expected goals1.11

AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet33%

Groningen keep a clean sheet14%

AZ Alkmaar win without conceding27%

Groningen win without conceding8%

AZ Alkmaar score 2 or more58%

Groningen score 2 or more31%

Recent form

AZ Alkmaar

L v Twente0–2 · 25 Oct

D @ Cambuur2–2 · 18 Oct

L @ Feyenoord0–2 · 10 Oct

W v Telstar1–0 · 20 Sep

D v Willem II1–1 · 11 Sep

Groningen

D @ NEC Nijmegen2–2 · 25 Oct

L v Ajax2–5 · 18 Oct

W @ Excelsior5–1 · 11 Oct

W v Zwolle3–0 · 18 Sep

D @ Go Ahead Eagles1–1 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, AZ Alkmaar won 5, Groningen won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished Groningen 3–0 AZ Alkmaar, a win for Groningen.

Groningen 3–0 AZ Alkmaar22 Mar 2026

AZ Alkmaar 4–1 Groningen10 Aug 2025

AZ Alkmaar 3–0 Groningen11 May 2025

Groningen 0–0 AZ Alkmaar25 Aug 2024

AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Groningen11 Mar 2023

Groningen 1–4 AZ Alkmaar1 Oct 2022

Season averages per game

AAGR

2.00

Goals

2.40

1.20

Conceded

2.10

2.17

1.71

1.22

xG against

1.98

16.8

Shots

14.3

6.4

On target

5.5

7.5

Corners

4.6

1.40

Yellow cards

1.20

30%

Clean sheets

10%

50%

Both score

90%

40%

3+ goals

90%

Questions and answers

Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?

GossipBall gives AZ Alkmaar a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Groningen 20%. GossipBall makes AZ Alkmaar favourites to beat Groningen at home.

What is the most likely score in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?

GossipBall gives a 59% chance that both AZ Alkmaar and Groningen score.

Will there be three or more goals in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?

There is a 59% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total (1.9 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.1 for Groningen).

When is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, AZ Alkmaar won 5, Groningen won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished Groningen 3–0 AZ Alkmaar, a win for Groningen.