Heerenveen vs Excelsior result and stats
Win probability: home 48%, draw 26%, away 26%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersHeerenveen beat Excelsior 4–0 at home in the Eredivisie on Friday 16 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Heerenveen 48%, the draw 26% and Excelsior 26%, so a home win had a 48% chance. GossipBall's favourite result came in.
On expected goals it finished Heerenveen 2.25, Excelsior 0.67, so Heerenveen created the better chances. Heerenveen had 14 shots (7 on target) to Excelsior's 5 (1 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
HEEX
2.25Expected goals0.67
14Shots5
7On target1
4Corners1
9Fouls10
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals0
Recent form
Heerenveen
L @ PSV Eindhoven0–2 · 9 Oct
W @ Sparta Rotterdam4–0 · 19 Sep
D v Telstar0–0 · 13 Sep
L v AZ Alkmaar2–3 · 6 Sep
D @ Willem II2–2 · 30 Aug
Excelsior
L v Groningen1–5 · 11 Oct
D @ Ajax2–2 · 19 Sep
L v Utrecht1–2 · 13 Sep
D @ NEC Nijmegen2–2 · 8 Sep
W @ Willem II3–0 · 5 Sep
Head to head
In 6 league meetings since 2022, Heerenveen won 3, Excelsior won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 7 Mar 2026, finished Excelsior 1–2 Heerenveen, a win for Heerenveen.
Excelsior 1–2 Heerenveen7 Mar 2026
Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior4 Oct 2025
Excelsior 3–0 Heerenveen19 Jan 2024
Heerenveen 0–3 Excelsior23 Sep 2023
Heerenveen 0–0 Excelsior13 May 2023
Excelsior 0–1 Heerenveen5 Nov 2022
Season averages per game
HEEX
1.80Goals1.60
1.30Conceded1.90
1.50xG1.27
1.45xG against1.55
15.3Shots10.6
5.9On target3.8
4.8Corners3.8
0.90Yellow cards1.30
40%Clean sheets20%
40%Both score60%
60%3+ goals90%