EredivisieMatchday 11Saturday 31 October 2026 · 17:45

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen prediction

Heerenveen

38%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.1% chance

25%

draw

NEC Nijmegen

37%

away win

Win probability: home 38%, draw 25%, away 37%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees Heerenveen against NEC Nijmegen as too close to call in the Eredivisie on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:45 UTC. It gives Heerenveen a 38% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives NEC Nijmegen 37%.

GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from Heerenveen and 1.7 from NEC Nijmegen, so goals look likely: there is a 65% chance of three or more goals and a 67% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (11%). Heerenveen keep a clean sheet in 19% of outcomes, NEC Nijmegen in 19%.

Heerenveen are 7th in the table with 15 points from 10 games; NEC Nijmegen are 12th with 11. In their last five league games Heerenveen took 10 points (DWLWW) and NEC Nijmegen took 4 (LDDDD). This season Heerenveen average 1.50 expected goals (xG) for and 1.45 against per game; NEC Nijmegen average 1.70 for and 1.77 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Heerenveen won 3, NEC Nijmegen won 3 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Heerenveen goalsColumns: NEC Nijmegen goals

1–111.1%

2–18.3%

1–28.2%

2–26.9%

2–05.0%

0–24.9%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

86%

3 or more goals

65%

4 or more goals

43%

5 or more goals

24%

Both teams score

67%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.3 goals in total: 1.67 for Heerenveen and 1.66 for NEC Nijmegen.

Winning margin

Explained

Heerenveen by 3

Heerenveen by 2

12%

Heerenveen by 1

18%

Draw

25%

NEC Nijmegen by 3

NEC Nijmegen by 2

11%

NEC Nijmegen by 1

18%

Each team's goals

Explained

Heerenveen expected goals1.67

NEC Nijmegen expected goals1.66

Heerenveen keep a clean sheet19%

NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet19%

Heerenveen win without conceding14%

NEC Nijmegen win without conceding14%

Heerenveen score 2 or more50%

NEC Nijmegen score 2 or more49%

Recent form

Heerenveen

W @ Den Haag3–2 · 24 Oct

W v Excelsior4–0 · 16 Oct

L @ PSV Eindhoven0–2 · 9 Oct

W @ Sparta Rotterdam4–0 · 19 Sep

D v Telstar0–0 · 13 Sep

NEC Nijmegen

D v Groningen2–2 · 25 Oct

D v Fortuna Sittard2–2 · 18 Oct

D @ Ajax1–1 · 10 Oct

D v Go Ahead Eagles1–1 · 20 Sep

L @ Cambuur0–3 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Heerenveen won 3, NEC Nijmegen won 3 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Heerenveen22 Mar 2026

Heerenveen 3–2 NEC Nijmegen21 Sep 2025

Heerenveen 1–0 NEC Nijmegen27 Apr 2025

NEC Nijmegen 3–0 Heerenveen19 Oct 2024

NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Heerenveen10 Mar 2024

Heerenveen 1–1 NEC Nijmegen7 Oct 2023

Season averages per game

HENN

1.80

Goals

1.70

1.30

Conceded

1.80

1.50

1.70

1.45

xG against

1.77

15.3

Shots

15.9

5.9

On target

4.7

4.8

Corners

6.3

0.90

Yellow cards

1.30

40%

Clean sheets

40%

Both score

90%

60%

3+ goals

80%

Questions and answers

Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

GossipBall gives Heerenveen a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and NEC Nijmegen 37%. GossipBall sees Heerenveen against NEC Nijmegen as too close to call.

What is the most likely score in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%).

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

GossipBall gives a 67% chance that both Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen score.

Will there be three or more goals in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

There is a 65% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.3 goals in total (1.7 for Heerenveen, 1.7 for NEC Nijmegen).

When is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Heerenveen won 3, NEC Nijmegen won 3 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, was a 2–2 draw.