EredivisieMatchday 12Sunday 8 November 2026 · 13:30

Twente vs Ajax prediction

Twente

42%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.7% chance

27%

draw

Ajax

31%

away win

Win probability: home 42%, draw 27%, away 31%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Twente slight favourites to beat Ajax at home in the Eredivisie on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC. It gives Twente a 42% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Ajax 31%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Twente and 1.4 from Ajax, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 57% chance of three or more goals and a 61% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Twente keep a clean sheet in 26% of outcomes, Ajax in 20%.

Twente are 4th in the table with 20 points from 10 games; Ajax are 2nd with 21. In their last five league games Twente took 10 points (WWDLW) and Ajax took 11 (WDDWW). This season Twente average 2.03 expected goals (xG) for and 0.89 against per game; Ajax average 2.42 for and 1.34 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Twente won 3, Ajax won 4 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Ajax 1–2 Twente, a win for Twente.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Twente goalsColumns: Ajax goals

1–112.7%

2–19.0%

1–27.6%

1–07.0%

2–06.7%

0–06.6%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

93%

2 or more goals

81%

3 or more goals

57%

4 or more goals

34%

5 or more goals

18%

Both teams score

61%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.0 goals in total: 1.60 for Twente and 1.35 for Ajax.

Winning margin

Explained

Twente by 3

Twente by 2

13%

Twente by 1

20%

Draw

27%

Ajax by 3

Ajax by 2

Ajax by 1

17%

Each team's goals

Explained

Twente expected goals1.60

Ajax expected goals1.35

Twente keep a clean sheet26%

Ajax keep a clean sheet20%

Twente win without conceding19%

Ajax win without conceding14%

Twente score 2 or more48%

Ajax score 2 or more39%

Recent form

Twente

W @ AZ Alkmaar2–0 · 25 Oct

L v Utrecht1–2 · 18 Oct

D @ Fortuna Sittard1–1 · 10 Oct

W v PSV Eindhoven3–2 · 20 Sep

W v Den Haag2–0 · 12 Sep

Ajax

W @ Sparta Rotterdam2–1 · 25 Oct

W @ Groningen5–2 · 18 Oct

D v NEC Nijmegen1–1 · 10 Oct

D v Excelsior2–2 · 19 Sep

W v Willem II5–1 · 15 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Twente won 3, Ajax won 4 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Ajax 1–2 Twente, a win for Twente.

Ajax 1–2 Twente4 Apr 2026

Twente 2–3 Ajax26 Oct 2025

Ajax 2–0 Twente18 May 2025

Twente 2–2 Ajax10 Nov 2024

Ajax 2–1 Twente14 Apr 2024

Twente 3–1 Ajax17 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

TWAJ

1.90

Goals

2.90

1.00

Conceded

1.30

2.03

2.42

0.89

xG against

1.34

20.3

Shots

22.2

6.9

On target

7.6

7.0

Corners

6.7

1.00

Yellow cards

1.90

30%

Clean sheets

20%

60%

Both score

80%

50%

3+ goals

80%

Questions and answers

Who will win Twente vs Ajax?

GossipBall gives Twente a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ajax 31%. GossipBall makes Twente slight favourites to beat Ajax at home.

What is the most likely score in Twente vs Ajax?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).

Will both teams score in Twente vs Ajax?

GossipBall gives a 61% chance that both Twente and Ajax score.

Will there be three or more goals in Twente vs Ajax?

There is a 57% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (1.6 for Twente, 1.4 for Ajax).

When is Twente vs Ajax?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Ajax?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Twente won 3, Ajax won 4 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Ajax 1–2 Twente, a win for Twente.