La LigaMatchday 11Saturday 31 October 2026 · 20:00

Barcelona vs Alaves prediction

Barcelona

81%

home win

likeliest score

2–0

10.7% chance

12%

draw

Alaves

away win

Win probability: home 81%, draw 12%, away 7%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Barcelona clear favourites to beat Alaves at home in the La Liga on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Barcelona a 81% chance of winning, puts the draw at 12% and gives Alaves 7%.

GossipBall expects 2.9 goals from Barcelona and 0.8 from Alaves, so goals look likely: there is a 72% chance of three or more goals and a 50% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 2–0 (11%). Barcelona keep a clean sheet in 47% of outcomes, Alaves in 5%.

Barcelona are 1st in the table with 27 points from 10 games; Alaves are 7th with 12. In their last five league games Barcelona took 12 points (WWWWL) and Alaves took 2 (LDLLD). This season Barcelona average 3.40 expected goals (xG) for and 1.09 against per game; Alaves average 1.32 for and 1.17 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Barcelona won 6, Alaves won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 13 May 2026, finished Alaves 1–0 Barcelona, a win for Alaves.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Barcelona goalsColumns: Alaves goals

2–010.7%

3–010.5%

2–18.1%

3–18.0%

4–07.7%

1–07.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

98%

2 or more goals

88%

3 or more goals

72%

4 or more goals

51%

5 or more goals

31%

Both teams score

50%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.7 goals in total: 2.94 for Barcelona and 0.76 for Alaves.

Winning margin

Explained

Barcelona by 3

18%

Barcelona by 2

21%

Barcelona by 1

19%

Draw

12%

Alaves by 3

Alaves by 2

Alaves by 1

Each team's goals

Explained

Barcelona expected goals2.94

Alaves expected goals0.76

Barcelona keep a clean sheet47%

Alaves keep a clean sheet5%

Barcelona win without conceding44%

Alaves win without conceding3%

Barcelona score 2 or more79%

Alaves score 2 or more18%

Recent form

Barcelona

L v Real Madrid1–2 · 25 Oct

W @ Real Betis5–2 · 17 Oct

W v Getafe3–0 · 10 Oct

W @ Sevilla3–1 · 19 Sep

W v Santander7–2 · 16 Sep

Alaves

D v Malaga1–1 · 23 Oct

L @ Celta Vigo1–2 · 18 Oct

L v Atlético Madrid1–2 · 10 Oct

D @ Athletic Club0–0 · 19 Sep

L v Valencia0–1 · 15 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Barcelona won 6, Alaves won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 13 May 2026, finished Alaves 1–0 Barcelona, a win for Alaves.

Alaves 1–0 Barcelona13 May 2026

Barcelona 3–1 Alaves29 Nov 2025

Barcelona 1–0 Alaves2 Feb 2025

Alaves 0–3 Barcelona6 Oct 2024

Alaves 1–3 Barcelona3 Feb 2024

Barcelona 2–1 Alaves12 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

BAAL

4.00

Goals

1.40

1.10

Conceded

1.10

3.40

1.32

1.09

xG against

1.17

20.9

Shots

13.3

8.2

On target

4.7

7.2

Corners

4.1

1.50

Yellow cards

1.70

40%

Clean sheets

30%

60%

Both score

60%

90%

3+ goals

50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Barcelona vs Alaves?

GossipBall gives Barcelona a 81% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Alaves 7%. GossipBall makes Barcelona clear favourites to beat Alaves at home.

What is the most likely score in Barcelona vs Alaves?

The likeliest single score is 2–0, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 3–1 (8%).

Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Alaves?

GossipBall gives a 50% chance that both Barcelona and Alaves score.

Will there be three or more goals in Barcelona vs Alaves?

There is a 72% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.7 goals in total (2.9 for Barcelona, 0.8 for Alaves).

When is Barcelona vs Alaves?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Barcelona and Alaves?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Barcelona won 6, Alaves won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 13 May 2026, finished Alaves 1–0 Barcelona, a win for Alaves.