La LigaMatchday 12Saturday 7 November 2026 · 13:00

Malaga vs Santander prediction

Malaga

40%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

10.3% chance

23%

draw

Santander

37%

away win

Win probability: home 40%, draw 23%, away 37%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees Malaga against Santander as too close to call in the La Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 13:00 UTC. It gives Malaga a 40% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Santander 37%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Malaga and 1.6 from Santander, so goals look likely: there is a 62% chance of three or more goals and a 63% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (10%). Malaga keep a clean sheet in 21% of outcomes, Santander in 19%.

Malaga are 20th in the table with 5 points from 10 games; Santander are 13th with 11. In their last five league games Malaga took 2 points (LLDLD) and Santander took 4 (LLDLW). This season Malaga average 0.85 expected goals (xG) for and 1.69 against per game; Santander average 1.38 for and 2.13 against.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Malaga goalsColumns: Santander goals

1–110.3%

2–18.6%

1–28.1%

1–06.8%

2–26.7%

0–16.5%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

96%

2 or more goals

83%

3 or more goals

62%

4 or more goals

40%

5 or more goals

22%

Both teams score

63%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.2 goals in total: 1.64 for Malaga and 1.56 for Santander.

Winning margin

Explained

Malaga by 3

Malaga by 2

12%

Malaga by 1

20%

Draw

23%

Santander by 3

Santander by 2

11%

Santander by 1

19%

Each team's goals

Explained

Malaga expected goals1.64

Santander expected goals1.56

Malaga keep a clean sheet21%

Santander keep a clean sheet19%

Malaga win without conceding17%

Santander win without conceding16%

Malaga score 2 or more49%

Santander score 2 or more46%

Recent form

Malaga

D @ Alaves1–1 · 23 Oct

L v Real Sociedad2–5 · 18 Oct

D v Espanyol1–1 · 9 Oct

L @ Getafe0–1 · 20 Sep

L v Villarreal1–3 · 17 Sep

Santander

W v Espanyol2–1 · 24 Oct

L @ Osasuna0–2 · 18 Oct

D v Valencia2–2 · 11 Oct

L @ Celta Vigo0–5 · 19 Sep

L @ Barcelona2–7 · 16 Sep

Head to head

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

MASA

0.70

Goals

1.50

1.90

Conceded

2.60

0.85

1.38

1.69

xG against

2.13

10.9

Shots

12.4

3.0

On target

4.9

5.2

Corners

5.1

1.90

Yellow cards

2.70

10%

Clean sheets

60%

Both score

70%

30%

3+ goals

80%

Questions and answers

Who will win Malaga vs Santander?

GossipBall gives Malaga a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Santander 37%. GossipBall sees Malaga against Santander as too close to call.

What is the most likely score in Malaga vs Santander?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 10% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).

Will both teams score in Malaga vs Santander?

GossipBall gives a 63% chance that both Malaga and Santander score.

Will there be three or more goals in Malaga vs Santander?

There is a 62% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total (1.6 for Malaga, 1.6 for Santander).

When is Malaga vs Santander?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 13:00 UTC.